PVC: increase and decrease differential development

China's chlor-alkali network latest production survey data show that as of December 2011, China's PVC production capacity reached 21.622 million tons / year (including paste resin 742,000 tons / year). In 2011, the annual growth rate of the PVC industry's production capacity was another trough in the past 10 years, which dropped back to 5.8%, which was only 1.8 percentage points higher than the 4% growth rate in the 2008 financial crisis. In the second half of 2011, the PVC market suffered from high raw material prices and the plunge in the price of PVC. As a result, many newly-built and expanded large projects slowed down the pace of construction and delayed production. At the end of 2011, the total capacity of PVC that was confirmed to be withdrawn or scrapped by the company was 665 thousand tons per year. In the same year, the total capacity of domestic PVC including paste resin was 1.86 million tons per year, which means that the net increase was 1.195 million tons per year. It is also the existence of withdrawal of production capacity, so that the growth rate of PVC production capacity in 2011 significantly decreased compared to previous years.

The sales situation of caustic soda in 2011 was very hot. The profits of abundant caustic soda led the chlor-alkali enterprises to increase the operating rate of the electrolyzer as much as possible, and in order to digest **, the operating rate of PVC also increased relatively. In particular, the national PVC operating rate was from August to October. Relatively high position in the middle of the year. The high supply of PVC encountered a bad environment such as the introduction of a national real estate policy, the tightening of bank credit, and the weakening of international demand. The overall price of PVC was not able to produce a satisfactory answer.

It is expected that the development of the PVC industry in 2012 will exhibit the following characteristics:

——Increase and decrease in industrial development coexistence In 2012, China's PVC industry expanded its energy statistics by 4.98 million tons/year. In addition, all of the first half of the production capacity was calcium carbide method PVC. The estimated production capacity is 2.84 million tons/year. The new PVC production capacity is still concentrated in provinces with strong resource endowments such as Xinjiang and Shaanxi. For example, Xinjiang Zhongtai Chemical’s projected production capacity is 800,000 tons/year, and Xinjiang Yihua plans to put into production at 600,000 tons/year. In addition, Anhui Huasu, Xinjiang Shengxiong, and Hebei Jinniu are expected to have new PVC capacity at 40. 10,000 tons/year or more. This shows that in the future, the large-scale and intensified PVC equipment in China will be an inevitable trend. PVC plants that are far from resources and energy-rich areas and do not have economies of scale will face greater pressure.

The industry believes that after 2008, the domestic PVC industry changed its development trend that has only increased. As the slowdown in domestic economic growth and the structural problems in economic development have been continuously strengthened, the PVC industry in China has to confront the problems of small-scale and sub-regional device elimination brought by market laws after rapid development.

—— Differences in Capacity Expansion of “Caustic Soda + PVC” As a whole, the difference between domestic PVC capacity expansion and the number of caustic soda expansion is increasing in the past two years. It is estimated that the total capacity of China's PVC in 2012 will total 4.98 million tons per year, while the total annual expansion capacity of caustic soda is expected to reach more than 8 million tons per year. The ratio of energy expansion between the two is no longer 1:1 or the former. 1:0.8. In particular, the chlor-alkali enterprises in the eastern coastal areas have expanded or built new facilities, taking into account the risks associated with the purchase of calcium carbide raw materials, and turned to the planning and production of caustic soda and more downstream products that are more competitive. However, in the caustic soda, PVC industry, the proportion of new energy expansion features, while the western region, "caustic soda + PVC" expansion matching index is still the highest, that is to say, the dominant position of PVC consumption** will not change.

——Insufficiency of operating rate highlights Since the start of the domestic PVC industry in 2008, affected by the financial crisis, and production showing negative growth for the first time, PVC production in 2009 and 2010 began to slowly rise. It is expected that the output of PVC in China will exceed 12.7 million tons in 2011. Therefore, the PVC industry, on the one hand, has a natural recovery in the case of a large production capacity base. On the other hand, the high supply of the PVC industry results in fierce competition and eroded profits. In 2011, the preliminary calculation of the effective utilization rate of domestic PVC equipment was still at a low level. From January to October, the industry average operating rate was below 60% for most of the time. The PVC industry is now on the path of structural adjustment. The difference in regional operating rates and the lack of effective utilization of industrial installations will be particularly prominent in the near one to two years.

——The Influencing Factors of Price Are Still Intricate The factors affecting the domestic PVC market in 2012 are still intricate. First of all, whether the price of calcium carbide or vinyl raw materials is no longer the era of low prices. Second, whether the downstream product industry can effectively ease the tension in the capital chain and whether the follow-up orders are full is still quite unknown. In particular, the profile and plastic pipe industry is closely related to the real estate industry. In 2012, the country put forward requirements for the construction of affordable housing throughout the country. In the long run, it will increase the demand for PVC. However, the short-term benefits in the first and second quarters are difficult to realize. Once again, after more than two years of market operations, PVC** will also have a certain impact on the domestic spot market. In 2012, the PVC period and the links between the two markets have to be considered. In addition, the chlor-alkali industry is a basic chemical industry related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. It is also an industry that gathers resources, uses energy, and requires large-scale capital investment. Therefore, the policies introduced by the state in terms of energy, finance, etc. will have a greater impact on the industry.

——The export trade needs to be strengthened. Affected by factors such as the increase of new production capacity, the decline in domestic demand, and the obvious cost advantage of ethylene and ethylene, the export volume of PVC in North America has increased significantly in recent years. In this way, in the international market competition, China's PVC export resistance is very obvious. The rapid growth of PVC demand in China and India made Asia become the main driving force for the growth of global PVC consumption. Although domestic demand can partly resolve the contradiction between PVC supply and demand, the beneficial promotion of foreign trade exports to domestic trade is relatively difficult. China's PVC exports need to be strengthened.

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