China's national inventory balance in September fell by 20% year-on-year

In September, the balance of China's inventories fell by 20% from the same period last year, reaching 2.7 trillion, almost equal to the same period in 2009. Wang Zhihao, head of research at Standard Chartered Bank Greater China, believes that this is a reflection of the slowdown in fiscal revenue growth caused by the slowdown in economic growth.

From the changes in the balance of the country's inventory, we can also see the laws of China's macro-policy: the funds allocated after the two sessions, the sudden expenditures at the end of the year, and the large amount of deposit balances at the end of the year are all reflected in the data on the balance of the national inventory.

The balance of the national inventory of about 3 trillion yuan per year is already a problem that the Chinese government needs to examine from the perspective of efficiency and burden.

National inventory changes

Every month, Wang Zhihao goes to the central bank's website to see the balance of the country's inventory. He thinks this is the quickest and most effective way to understand how much fiscal stimulus is.

State stocks are also called government deposits. The income of all levels of government is deposited in the state treasury of the People's Bank of China and is spent here. At present, China has a central treasury, 30 local treasury branches, 49 central treasury and 513 city and county treasury, and the central and local treasury to solve the problem of income and allocation of funds through networking.

In September, the national fiscal revenue was 825.8 billion yuan, and the expenditure was 1,167.9 billion. The balance of the country's inventory at the end of the month was more than 2.7 trillion, down 20% from the same period last year of 357.1 billion, which made the governments at all levels sweat.

The 2012 national tax revenue plan for Jiaozuo City in Henan Province was 5.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. However, from January to July this year, Jiaozuo's national tax revenue was 3.1 billion yuan, down 3.6% year-on-year. The city's income was down 9.7% year-on-year, with a decrease of 25.52 million yuan. Chen Guoquan, director of Jiaozuo State Taxation Bureau, expects the city's national tax revenue to be 4.6 billion yuan this year, with a gap of 1.1 billion yuan. He analyzed that this year's economic downturn is more than expected at the beginning of the year. The downside is fast and lasts for a long time. He can't judge whether it will improve quickly in the short term. .

Every year the government collects all the income that should eventually enter the national treasury. The spokesman of the Ministry of Finance, Dai Baihua, said that the current state treasury concentrated tax revenue, non-tax revenue, fund income and central enterprise dividends, while part of the income, such as tax revenue, was eventually transferred to the state treasury through a transitional account.

Many scholars said that they did not observe the habit of changes in the country's inventory. However, Wang Zhihao believes that through the changes in the state's inventory, it can be seen that the government's income and the net effect of disbursing such a large sum of money. For example, at a certain point in time, there is a large reduction in the balance of the national inventory, indicating that government expenditure is greater than income, and it can be judged that the fiscal stimulus is positive.

In addition, the laws of China's macroeconomic policies can also be seen from the changes in the balance of state stocks.

For example, there will be a significant decline in the balance of the national treasury in March, because after the approval of the budgets of the two national conferences in early March, a large amount of funds entered the appropriation process. The biggest decline in annual balance is December. For example, in December 2011, the deposit balance decreased by more than 1.1 trillion yuan from the previous month, and the fiscal revenue of the month was 643.1 billion yuan. This month, the government spent nearly 2 trillion yuan. This reflects the end of the Chinese special spending.

If compared during the year, it will also be found that the decline in government deposit balances in December 2008 is the largest in recent years. At that time, the 4 trillion investment plan was released, requiring most of the projects to be started before the end of the year, and the funds were allocated. This led to an alarming amount of government spending in the month.

One strange phenomenon that Wang Zhihao has been unable to understand is that on December 31 of each year, there are still more than 2 trillion balances on government deposit accounts. According to the theory, the balance of this account is zero on the last day of the year, even if there is over-receipt income carried over to the next year, it is only about 200 billion. "These balances at the end of the year seem to have been budgeted, but they have not been spent yet, but it seems that the budget is not arranged." Wang Zhihao said.

The progress of government spending at all levels in China has been slower than the budget. Often income is 80%, but money is only 40%, and the last two months of the year will be spent. Since 2007, the Ministry of Finance has focused on solving the problem of slow progress in expenditures. By the end of the year, we will visit departments by department and implement them one by one to accelerate the progress of expenditures.

In 2011, the Ministry of Finance requested that at the end of November, fiscal expenditures at all levels should be completed at 80%. At the end of December, the portion of the budget stabilization fund and the deficit offset for the next year should be 100% complete, that is, 11.24 trillion. However, if we observe the central bank's government deposit statistics, the balance of the national inventory will still be 2.3 trillion on December 31, 2011, and this is a common phenomenon in the national treasury in recent years.

According to some local officials who participated in the National Financial Work Conference last year, it is necessary to pay for the progress at the end of the year, but the progress of the project is not so fast. Therefore, some places can only make a virtual account book. Actually, there is no expenditure, and it is still in the national treasury. Digested one by one a few months ago. “Every year after the two sessions, the appropriation is started. The place is often in the middle and late April, and there is only 8 months to do things in a year, very nervous.” The local officials said.

To this end, many local officials believe that it is not meaningful to sequence the books in order to complete the progress. Some of the expenditures at the end of the year should be extended to the second year of March.

Huge deposit balance

At the end of the year, a large balance made Wang Zhihao confused, and he was not convinced that there was a stable inventory of about 3 trillion yuan in the country. In Wang Zhihao's view, the treasury should be an account with liquidity function. In theory, the less the treasury cash balance is, the more efficient it is. He evaluates that China's treasury is more like a savings account. Although the balance of the national inventory in September this year has declined, it is still 2.7 billion.

In his view, most of the national government treasury does not have that much money. In fact, the less the treasury deposits, the better, indicating that the funds are profitable and there is no overcharge to taxpayers.

In the United States, for example, the treasury department will have a series of judgments on income, track it every day, and calculate how much treasury bonds need to be issued according to the balance of income and expenditure. If the income situation improves in a certain period of time, the scale of treasury bonds will be reduced and the income will decrease. , then increase the national debt, these are monitored and adjusted in real time.

Wang Zhihao is not sure whether it is a good thing or a bad thing to have such a large balance. It has been suggested that since there is such a large deposit balance, these balances should be used instead of borrowing more money from the market. However, Wang Zhihao is not sure about this. "Maybe the Ministry of Finance thinks this is a pool of funds that can be used in times of crisis."

According to public data, since 2003, China's treasury cash balance has grown at an average annual rate of 37%. Like every ordinary person, if you have more deposits, you want to buy a fund or a house to make an investment. The government deposits have also moved the mind of financial management, also known as treasury cash management.

As of October 18, in 2012, there were 540 billion national inventories for financial management, and 11 inflows into commercial banks to obtain higher interest income. At present, the frequency and scale of treasury cash management have exceeded the previous years. In 2011, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank carried out 11 times of cash management of RMB 440 billion on the balance of the national inventory. In addition to the government spending more in December, the rest of the month once a month.

At present, the central treasury cash management operation of the Ministry of Finance is to transfer the central treasury balance deposit from the central bank to a commercial bank. It is understood that the central bank pays a 0.36% interest rate for the national inventory, but the treasury funds are generally higher through the bidding operation for commercial banks. The average annual interest rate for 2011 is around 6%. This year, due to interest rate cuts and other operations, interest rates are above 5% at the beginning of the year and above 3% in the middle of the year, and have now risen to over 4%.

Although the deposit interest rate is reduced, due to the growth of wealth management funds, it is estimated that the Treasury wealth management income will still be more than 10 billion this year.

However, the central bank has always been awkward about the increase in the value of the country's inventory. If the treasury cash management is not properly operated, the most immediate harm is to increase inflation, increase liquidity, and impact monetary policy.

In this regard, people close to the Ministry of Finance said that the Ministry of Finance is only to reflect the time value and use value of the financial treasury cash, all of which are credited to the central treasury, not under the name of a certain department. He believes that because the size of the central treasury cash management is not large compared to the deposit balance, it can alleviate the capital needs of small and medium banks, and has little impact on monetary policy.

According to the source, especially in the past two years, with the promotion of the treasury single account and the management of extra-budgetary income, more and more extra-budgetary funds have flowed into the national treasury, which can greatly reduce the liquidity of commercial banks, and their monetary policy. The hedging effect itself can be eliminated within the financial system.

However, in the view of central bank officials, cash management is not a fundamental solution to over-stocking. It is fundamentally to solve high-inventories, or to start from the process of budget preparation and execution.

Gas Industry Mass Flow Meter

Sealand is a trustworthy manufacturer of Gas Mass Flow Meter, Gas Mass Flowmeter, Gas Flow Meter, Gas Flowmeter, Gas Meter, ATEX, IECEx & CE approved.

Gas Mass Flow Meter, Gas Mass Flowmeter, Gas Flow Meter, Gas Flowmeter, Gas Meter

Zhejiang Sealand Technology Co., Ltd. , https://www.sealandflowmeter.com