An invisible war triggered by polysilicon is starting.
Recently, China's Ministry of Commerce announced that it has launched a "double anti-" (anti-dumping, countervailing) investigation on polysilicon products in the United States and South Korea. Analysts generally believe that this is a tough counterattack that China has repeatedly taken similar measures against other countries.
However, on July 25th, the fifth day after China announced the “double oppositionâ€, 25 solar energy companies from Germany, Italy, Spain and other member states jointly appealed to the European Commission to levy solar energy products imported from China. High punitive tariffs.
According to this, the industry believes that the current trend of the trade war has emerged, but what the war will bring to Chinese companies is still unknown. However, one thing that can be confirmed is that it is difficult for China's polysilicon enterprises to take advantage of this "double opposition".
Unexpected "double-reverse" investigation
On behalf of China's solar-grade polysilicon industry, the company applied to the Ministry of Commerce for “double-reverse†investigations, including Jiangsu Zhongneng Silicon, Jiangxi Saiwei LDK, Luoyang Zhongsi and Daxin Energy.
At the request of these four companies, the Ministry of Commerce issued an external announcement on July 20th, which will conduct a "double-reverse" investigation on imported solar-grade polysilicon products from the United States, and conduct anti-dumping investigations on related products originating in South Korea.
Xiaoxin, a researcher in the new energy industry of China Investment Consulting, told the reporter of the Chinese Journal of Science and Technology: "China launched this "double-reverse" investigation as early as the market expected."
Energy industry analyst Song Liang also said that the industry has long expected. He told the reporter of the Chinese Journal of Science and Technology: "As an important raw material for solar cells, the current US and South Korea's polysilicon products are indeed dumping in China, and their prices are about 20% cheaper than domestic products."
Statistics from China Customs show that from January to May, the import volume of polysilicon was 34,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%.
China Investment Consulting's 2012-2016 China Polysilicon Industry Investment Analysis and Forecast Report also shows that China's polysilicon imports from January to May this year were 34,000 tons, up 32.3% year-on-year, and hit a record high in May. It reached nearly 8,000 tons.
From January to May this year, the number of polysilicon products imported from South Korea increased by 12.11%, but the price dropped by 62.32%; the imports from the United States increased by 94.51%, and the price dropped by 67.07%.
Under the impact of imported polysilicon products, the average price of domestic sales has been less than 30 US dollars / kg. Before the Chinese polysilicon industry was mature, the international polysilicon price once surged to about 400 US dollars / kg.
Zhang Hao, an analyst of Haitong Securities' power equipment and new energy industry, pointed out that due to this serious impact, only 8 of the 43 polysilicon enterprises in China are still barely starting production, and the remaining 80% have stopped production.
"Therefore, from the current market situation, the reason and purpose of this investigation is very clear." Xiao said.
He believes that on the one hand, this is a positive response to the earlier US double-reverse investigation of Chinese PV companies and the imposition of a high tax rate, which will provide a certain development space for Chinese PV companies. On the other hand, due to the low export price of US and South Korea polysilicon and the suspected dumping, the domestic polysilicon enterprises suffered serious losses. This will help ensure that domestic companies can participate in market competition fairly.
Regarding this statement, Song Liang expressed his approval: "I think the decision of the Ministry of Commerce to carry out this investigation is correct. From the perspective of protecting Chinese enterprises, there is no doubt."
Polysilicon prices are hard to rebound sharply
At present, the phenomenon of oversupply of global polysilicon production is quite serious. For example, the top four polysilicon producers in the world and the Norwegian polysilicon giant REC have a low-cost capacity of more than 295,000 tons and about 45 GW, which has exceeded the annual demand of 32 GW worldwide.
Therefore, analysts pointed out that although the "double-reverse" investigation can bring fair competition and respite to domestic enterprises, it can also suppress the downward trend of polysilicon prices in the short term, but it is still very difficult to try to increase prices sharply. .
Chen Hua, an analyst at CICC, said that the anti-dumping duty imposed is equivalent to the import tax on the difference between the domestic market price and the dumping price of the exporting country. The magnitude of the countervailing duty is usually very small. Therefore, he judged that the domestic spot price of polysilicon will be expected to stop falling, but the rebound is weak.
Xiao Han’s judgment is: “In the short term, domestic polysilicon prices will be slightly rebounded by “double-reverse†stimulus, but it is difficult to have a fundamental improvement.†Song Liang also believes that polysilicon prices will not rebound sharply in the future, “Chinese companies produce About 80% of the polysilicon products are sold to the EU. The current European debt crisis has caused the PV market to shrink sharply. Therefore, even if the "double anti-" success, in the long run, polysilicon prices will be in a relatively low state."
Zhang Shuai, an analyst at Guojin Securities, also said that the "double-reverse" incident will support the price of polysilicon in the short term, but the trend of polysilicon prices in the medium term still depends on the changes in the supply and demand situation in the terminal market.
The key is to open the entire industrial chain
Chen Hua further pointed out that in fact, China’s intention of “double-reverse†drunkenness to the United States and South Korea is not to curb other countries’ similar sanctions for exporting photovoltaic products to China. Since the “double-reverse†investigation is for one year, it is expected that the results will not be met. At present, all the domestically discontinued production capacity and some of the still struggling production capacity have already withdrawn from the market, so “double-reverse†can’t save China’s polysilicon enterprises. .
He believes that the biggest significance of "double opposition" is to put pressure on Europe to warn them not to follow the United States to launch "double opposition" to Chinese PV products. At the same time, it forced the United States to make concessions in the final ruling of the "double-reverse" tax rate. "If the trade war breaks out completely, it will cause further damage to Chinese enterprises."
Zhang Shuai also said that the Ministry of Commerce’s investigation into the import of polysilicon at this time is undoubtedly a tough gesture, and it is also released by the US Department of Commerce and the European Union, which will make a final ruling in October. A warning message.
However, 25 EU companies have appealed to China's solar products to report that the trade war seems to have begun to show signs.
Zhang Shuai pointed out that if the EU follows the example of the US's "double opposition" to China's PV products, the lethality of China's PV companies will be far greater than that of the United States.
Song Liang also said: "We must make the worst plan in advance. Once the EU really implements the "double opposition", in the future, Chinese enterprises can only build cars behind closed doors. Therefore, the government must increase investment in the development of the downstream PV market. Upstream and companies that produce low-end products have a way to "live"."
He pointed out that China's PV industry cannot only produce low-end products, nor can it only process and process incoming materials. "We must encourage large enterprises to extend downstream of the industrial chain to produce parts and firmly grasp the entire photovoltaic power station. Core technology. At the same time, increase the intensity of photovoltaic grid-connected power generation, and open up the entire photovoltaic industry chain."
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