From the perspective of foreign countries, the positive changes in the world economic situation are increasing, the international financial market tends to be stable, and the developed countries such as the US, Europe and Japan have ended their free fall in the first quarter. The recession has slowed down and is recovering. improve. The US third-quarter GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.5%, the first time in four quarters. Japan’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 54.5 in September, the highest in three years, and the consumer confidence index rose for the ninth consecutive month. The overall economic confidence index of the euro zone in September reached 82.8, a record high in a year. Emerging economies such as India and Brazil experienced accelerated economic growth, with growth of 6.1% and 6.0% in the second quarter. The International Monetary Fund is expected to improve its economic growth and raise the world economic growth in 2009 from -1.4% to -1.1%. These will help the international market to stabilize at a low level. Judging from the situation of the Canton Fair in the fall, there is also some warmth in the international market demand.
At the same time, we must also clearly see that although some developed countries' economies have begun to recover, but the foundation is not stable and the momentum is insufficient, the global economic recovery will be a slow and tortuous process, and the situation and impact of shrinking external demand will continue. Unemployment rate in major economies continued to climb. The unemployment rate in the United States reached 9.8% in September, the highest since 1983. The unemployment rate in the euro zone rose to 9.6% in August, the highest since the birth of the euro zone. Japan’s unemployment rate in August was 5.5%. In the past ten years. The financial crisis has led to a sharp decline in the wealth of residents. The savings rate of the United States and other countries continues to rise, restricting residents to expand consumption. Affected by the overcapacity of traditional industries and the fact that emerging industries have not yet formed scale investment, the independent growth momentum of investment demand is insufficient. It is very difficult for the international market demand to rebound significantly in the short term. Trade protection has intensified and the friction situation is very serious, especially the trade friction against China has increased significantly. According to World Bank statistics, since the outbreak of the financial crisis, 17 countries in the G20 have launched about 78 trade protectionist measures, 47 of which have been implemented. In the first three quarters, a total of 19 countries and regions initiated 88 trade remedy investigations against China, involving more than 10 billion US dollars. At present, some countries are still launching trade remedy investigations on Chinese products, further increasing the resistance of China's export recovery.
From the domestic point of view, the Chinese government will further implement policies such as export tax rebates, export credit insurance and financing guarantees, and stabilize and gradually restore foreign trade imports and exports. These policy measures are conducive to further enhancing corporate confidence and improving the external environment for business operations. With the further effect of various policy measures, the import and export has begun to decline in the fourth quarter of 2008, and the base is relatively low. In the next few months of 2009, the decline in imports and exports is expected to further narrow or even rebound slightly. Based on various factors, it is expected that the decline in China's imports and exports in 2009 will be narrowed to less than 20%.
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