The steel market is on the verge of downward pressure and price fluctuations

Under the influence of the state's introduction of a series of “steady growth” economic policies, the mentality of the domestic steel market has stabilized, but due to the rapid production of steel mills, the domestic steel market will once again face downward pressure. It is expected that the short-term domestic steel market will maintain a small Volatility situation.

According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecasting model data, this week (2012.11.5-11.9) domestic steel market prices will fluctuate within a narrow range, the long products market will decline slightly, and the plate market price will rise steadily or slightly higher. The Lange Steel Composite Index is expected to fluctuate around 148.5 points, the average price of steel is around 3860 yuan (see Figure 1 for details), and the average fluctuation range is around 20-30 yuan. Lange Steel's long product index is expected to fluctuate around 165.6. A slight decline of about 0.3 points; Lange Steel's sheet metal index is expected to fluctuate around 128.1 points, a slight increase of about 0.7 points.

From the Lange Steel Information Research Center market survey, it is expected that this week (2012.11.5-11.9) domestic long products market prices will decline slightly, while the plate market prices will rise slightly or slightly higher; raw material market prices will rise and fall mixed, The market price of iron ore will remain basically stable. The market price of coke will rise by 20 yuan, the market price of scrap steel will decline by a steady 100%, and the market price of steel billets will decline by a steady 30 cents.

1. Narrow fluctuations in the domestic steel market this week In the 44th week of 2012 (10.29-11.2), the Lange Steel (LGMI) Composite Price Index reached 148.4 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.08% and a decrease of 13.74% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long product price index was 165.9 points, a week-on-month decrease of 0.51%, a decrease of 15.07% over the same period of last year; LGMI sheet price index was 127.4 points, a week-on-month increase of 1.00%, a decrease of 11.58% over the same period last year (see Figure 1 for details) .

According to the price data of 17 categories of 44 specifications in some regions monitored by the Lange Steel Information Research Center market, the market price of major steel products fluctuates in a narrow range during the 44th week of 2012 (10.29-11.2). There has been a slight increase. The flat variety has decreased slightly, and the falling variety has increased slightly. Twenty-one of the 21 varieties rose, 1 increase over the previous week; 13 remained unchanged, 2 decreases over the previous week; 10 varieties fell 3 times over the previous week. The domestic iron and steel raw materials market prices were mixed, iron ore market prices fell steadily and slightly down 20 yuan, coke market prices rose slightly by 20-60 yuan, scrap market prices mixed, steel billet market prices fell steadily 50 yuan.

2. This week, the national steel society stock deceleration has slowed down. At present, the national steel society stocks continue to decline. The decline in the rate of decline of building materials stocks has slowed sharply, and the rate of decline in sheet stocks has accelerated slightly. According to the market monitoring of Lange Steel Information Research Center, on November 2nd, steel society stocks in 29 key cities across the country were 12.4964 million tons, a decrease of 237,500 tons from the previous week. From the perspective of sub-categories, the country’s wire stocks were 1,027.8 thousand tons, down 2.31% from the previous week; rebar social stocks were 4,571,700 tons, down 0.83% from the previous week; and the stocks of the snails were 281,500 tons. This was a decrease of 4.87% from the previous week; the social volume of hot-rolled coils was 3.5977 million tons, down 3.53% from the previous week; the social volume of cold-rolled coils was 1,597,400 tons, up 0.13% from last week; The amount was 1,147,700 tons, a decrease of 2.10% from last week.

3. This week, the steel market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations. Week 44 of 2012 (10.29-11.2) The rebar market began to stabilize after experiencing rapid decline on Monday. Weekly settlement price fell by 7 points this week. The main contract this week was 947,000 contracts, an increase of 113,000 contracts. The 1305 contract continued to enlarge Masukura.

4. Concern about the recent factors affecting steel prices Macroeconomics:

The growth rate of profit growth of industrial enterprises for the first time in six months According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, the industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a profit of 3.524 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from January to August. In September, the company realized a profit of 464.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, and achieved positive growth after a consecutive year-on-year negative growth. In terms of sub-sectors, from January to September, of the 41 industrial sectors, the profits of 26 industries increased year-on-year, 14 industries decreased year-on-year, and one industry turned profit from the same period to a loss.

In September, the growth rate of China's industrial investment reached 11.1 trillion yuan. The rate of decline continued to fall. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, industrial investment completed 11.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 4 percentage points lower than the same period in 2011. It is 0.5 percentage point lower than that in January-August. From January to September, private investment in the industrial sector was 8.2588 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.1%, and the growth rate was 5.6 percentage points higher than that of industrial investment. Six high-energy-consuming industries invested 3.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, and the growth rate was 4.2% higher than the same period of 2011. Investment in technological transformation completed 4.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in the same period of 2011 and 0.9 percentage point lower than that in January-August.

In September, high-energy-consuming industries witnessed rapid investment growth. Investment in technological transformation slowed down. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, six high-energy-consuming industries invested 3.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%. It was 4.2% higher in the same period last year. In terms of different industries, investment in non-metallic mineral products and nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries rose by 18.1% and 18.6%, respectively, representing a decrease of 10.1 and 14.6% respectively from the same period of last year; petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industries, and chemical raw materials. And chemical products manufacturing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, electricity, heat production and supply investment increased by 16.2%, 33.6%, 31.5% and 16.1% respectively, the growth rate was 6.2, 10.5, 11.5 higher than the same period of last year. 12.8 percentage points.

October China's manufacturing purchasing managers index was 50.2%

According to the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, in October 2012, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and returning above the critical point. In terms of scale of the company, the PMI of large-scale enterprises was 50.9%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and was above the critical point for 2 consecutive months, which was the main driving force for the overall recovery of the manufacturing economy this month; the medium-sized enterprise PMI was 49.3%, which was higher than the previous year. The monthly decline was 0.5 percentage points; the small business PMI was 47.2%, which was a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month.

HSBC Manufacturing PMI final value rose to 49.5 in October to an eight-month high According to statistics from HSBC Holdings, the final value of China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 49.5 in October, and the preview value in October was 49.1,9. The monthly final value is 47.9. In terms of sub-indicators, the final value of China's HSBC PMI for new manufacturing orders in October was 51.2, which was the first time in 12 months to return above the 50 level. The preview value in October was 49.7.

Raw material supply:

The output of iron ore Big Three steadily increased. BHP Billiton released data showing that its iron ore production in the third quarter was 39.772 million tons (calculated as 100% of shares, same below), 1% higher than the same period of last year, but decreased by 3% from the previous quarter. . BHP Billiton stated that its Western Australian iron ore business (WAIO) maintained strong growth, with production of 36.982 million tons in the third quarter, which was lower than the 38.036 million tons in the second quarter, slightly higher than the 36.59 million tons in the same period of last year. The data also shows that in the third quarter, the sales volume of iron ore was 37.056 million tons, which was a decrease of approximately 2.5% from the previous quarter, which was flat compared to the same period of last year and higher than the output of the quarter. BHP Billiton's Samarco pellet plant in Brazil produced 2.88 million tons in the third quarter, slightly higher than the 2.855 million tons in the previous quarter, which was lower than the 2.973 million tons in the same period of last year.

In the third quarter, Rio Tinto's global (Australian and Canadian) iron ore production was 52.628 million tons (calculated as 100% of shares), which was 6% higher than the same period of last year and 8% higher than the previous month; the first 9 months of production was 146.9 million tons, which was an increase from the same period last year. 5%. The output of hard coking coal was 2.407 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13% and a 20% increase from the previous month; the output of the first nine months was 6.112 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. From the perspective of total output, Rio Tinto’s iron ore production in the third quarter was 66.885 million tons, which was 1.468 million tons more than the sales of 65.517 million tons, which was significantly larger than the 79.96 million tons in the second quarter; The monthly output was 187 million tons, which was 7 million tons more than the sales volume of 180 million tons, which was larger than the 5.708 million tons in the second quarter, but the overall rate was still small.

Vale has announced production data for the third quarter recently, saying that its iron ore production during the quarter was 83.926 million tons (excluding pellets), which was a 4.2% increase from the previous month and a decrease of 4.5% from the same period last year; the output in the first 9 months was 2.34. Billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, and the decline was larger than -0.8% in the first half of the year. Vale's sales of iron ore (excluding pellets) in the third quarter of this year were 66.205 million tons, a 5% increase from the previous quarter and a decrease of about 1% year-on-year. Pellet sales were 11.966 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, a decrease from the previous month. 3%. The total sales of the two were 78.171 million tons, but the total output in the third quarter was as high as 98.88 million tons, a difference of 20.71 million tons, and the surplus was 26.5%, which was higher than the 20% in the first half of the year.

Industry News:

WISCO's net profit fell by 80% in the first three quarters

According to the quarterly report released by Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., the company achieved a net profit of 193 million yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 53.31%, and operating income of 21.913 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.62%, and a per-share return of 0.019 yuan. In the first three quarters of this year, the company achieved a net profit of 328 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80%, operating income of 67.221 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.46%, and a per-share return of 0.032 yuan. Songshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. released three quarterly reports on Sunday evening. In the first three quarters of this year, the company recorded a loss of 1.5 billion yuan, equivalent to a loss of 0.8989 yuan per share, and operating income of 14.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.48%. In the third quarter of this year, the company suffered a loss of 717 million yuan, equivalent to a loss of 0.4299 yuan per share, and operating income of 4.671 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.64%.

Bayi Steel's net profit fell 87.42% year-on-year in the first three quarters

According to the three quarterly report released by Bayi Iron & Steel, the company's operating income from July to September was 7.363 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.87%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 121 million yuan, down 173.91% year-on-year. The company said that from January to September, operating income was 21.505 billion yuan, down 2.71% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 69.54 million yuan, down 87.42% year-on-year.

Baosteel’s net profit for the third quarter was 1.18 billion. According to Baosteel’s three quarterly report, the net profit for the quarter was RMB 1.181 billion. From January to September 2012, Baosteel Co., Ltd. sold 11.74 million tons of commodity billets, realized total operating revenue of 146.1 billion yuan and total profit of 13.87 billion yuan, and continued to maintain the best operating performance of the domestic industry; net profit attributable to listed companies was 10.79 billion yuan. EPS is 0.62 yuan/share. Third-quarter net profit was RMB 1.181 billion, EPS 0.07 yuan/share, down 4.88% year-on-year, but after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, it was down by 44% year-on-year.

Shandong Iron & Steel suffered a loss of 1.957 billion in the first three quarters. According to a three-quarters report issued by Shandong Iron and Steel, the company recorded a loss of 1.957 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year and operating income of 57.847 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.88%. In the third quarter of this year, the company had a loss of 961 million yuan and operating income of 17.603 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.97%.

Chongqing Steel suffered a loss of 1.17 billion in the first three quarters. According to Chongqing Steel’s three quarterly report, Chongqing Steel suffered a loss of 522 million yuan in the third quarter, a basic loss of 0.301 yuan per share, and the company earned 5.796 million yuan in the same period last year.

In mid-October, the output of crude steel continued to rise. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the daily output of crude steel of its key member enterprises in mid-October was 1.606 million tons, which was a 1.4% increase from the previous month, and the national daily production was estimated at 1.99 million tons. It increased by 83,000 tons in the first half of the year and increased by 4.3% in the first half. The Xun Bao also showed that at the end of the middle-end, the steel stocks of key large and medium-sized steel enterprises were 110.35 million tons.

Development and Reform Commission: The cumulative loss of key steel enterprises in the first nine months of the year exceeded 5.5 billion. According to statistics released by the National Development and Reform Commission, in September, the sales revenue of key enterprises in the steel industry was 281.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%; from January to September, the accumulated sales revenue was 2,657.25 billion yuan. The year-on-year decrease was 6.5%. In September, key enterprises suffered a loss of 2.38 billion yuan, and cumulative losses from January to September totaled 5.53 billion yuan, which turned from losses to profits in the same period of last year.

October Steel Pyongyang PMI: November steel prices stable and weak Lange Steel Information Research Center released in October 2012 steel ** Tongye PMI was 50.2%, down 3.0 percentage points from last month, is still expanding Interval. The total orders and purchase willingness index fell significantly and entered the contraction range, indicating that the short-term market demand weakened. However, the increase in procurement costs and the environmental index reflect that the cost support and the financial environment of steel trading companies have improved. In November, steel prices will weaken steadily and will not drop sharply.

The rebar main 1305 contract was opened at 3,675 yuan/ton in the morning on the 2nd, and then the price showed an intraday volatility throughout the day. The minimum was 3,654 yuan/ton throughout the day and the highest was 3,695 yuan/ton, which was closed at 3,676 yuan/ton. On the previous trading day (1st), the settlement price rose by RMB 14/t and 2,174,920 contracts were dealt with, holding 947,470 contracts, or 2,308 contracts.

Downstream demand:

From January to September, the growth rate of the growth rate of China's machinery industry production and sales compared to the same period last year. According to statistics, from January to September, the total industrial output value of the machinery industry was 1,33,819 million yuan, an increase of 11.93% year-on-year; and the industrial sales value was 1,300,601,000,000 yuan, an increase of 11.45% year-on-year. From January to September, the rate of production and sales was 97.47%. From January to September, the output value of industrial sales fell overall compared to the same period of last year, and the growth rate of production and sales of internal combustion engines, construction machinery, machine tools, food packaging, and other civilian industries continued to decline by a large percentage year-on-year; among them, the internal combustion engine industry grew from the original positive rate. Decline to -2.73% of negative growth, a year-on-year decrease of 27.52%; construction machinery and other civilian industries, the growth rate dropped by 32.8 and 30.61 percentage points.

In September, the year-on-year growth rate of the total production and sales of the construction machinery industry increased slightly. Compared with the growth rate of the construction machinery industry, according to the statistics of China Machine Network, in September 2012, the total output value of the construction machinery industry in China reached 44.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of negative 6.44%; It was 1.72%; the sales value of sales was 45.635 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of minus 0.77%, and the growth rate was 4.82%. The rate of sales in September was 103.5%, up 0.3% from the previous month.

From January to September of 2012, the national construction machinery industry accumulated a total industrial output value of 465.509 billion yuan, an increase of 2.83% year-on-year; the sales value of sales reached 5040.327 billion yuan, an increase of 3.32% year-on-year. From January to September, the sales rate was 98%.

In the winter and spring of spring, the investment in farmland water conservancy will exceed 300 billion. The Ministry of Water Resources has issued the "Circular on Issuing the National Implementation Plan for Water and Soil Water Conservancy in Winter and Spring". In 2012-2013, the country’s winter and spring irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure construction strived to increase total investment by more than 15% from the previous year, achieving a total investment of more than 300 billion yuan. According to the data of the “Notice”, in the total investment in the construction of farmland and water conservancy in the winter and spring of this year, about 44% of the local government’s supporting investment in finance will be invested, and the masses and other organizations in the society will invest about 15%. The implementation points highlighted in the “Notice” include: successfully fulfilling the task of building a drinking water safety project for the rural population of more than 60 million people; ensuring that the supporting and water-saving reform of the irrigation area and irrigation and drainage pumping stations in 2012 will be completed before the spring irrigation in 2013; The provinces and regions have increased water-saving and grain-raising operations and actively carried out early-stage work for the promotion of efficient and water-saving irrigation technologies in the northwest and north China regions; and ensured the addition of a total of 45 million mu of water-saving irrigation projects throughout the year.