RMB appreciation will affect steel trade

On the 11th, the US Senate passed the "2011 Currency Exchange Rate Supervision and Reform Act" with a vote of 63 votes in favor and 35 votes against the strong opposition at home and abroad. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai said on the 10th that the US Senate bill does not reflect the reality of Sino-US economic and trade relations, but also brings harmful factors to the future development of bilateral economic and trade relations. The appreciation of the renminbi will also have a great impact on people's lives. On the positive side, the first is to facilitate the import of goods, the prices of imported goods used by people will decline; the second is to stabilize domestic prices and increase income, provide more employment opportunities; once again, it is conducive to tourism and study abroad. On the whole, it is conducive to continuing to promote the exchange rate system and even the reform of the financial system. It is also conducive to reducing the demand for foreign capital for domestic purchases and reducing the real estate bubble. However, the appreciation of the renminbi also has many drawbacks: First, it is not conducive to foreign tourists entering the country. Inbound tourism for foreign tourists has become relatively expensive, which has a detrimental effect on domestic tourism; secondly, it is not conducive to commodity exports. As the cost of production has increased, the appreciation of the renminbi has also caused China to lose its attractiveness for foreign investment in the mainland. In general, the biggest impact of the appreciation of the renminbi is China’s export trade. The trade friction between China and the United States is based on China’s huge trade surplus with the United States. As soon as the renminbi appreciates, China’s monetary advantage will disappear. Moreover, the appreciation of the renminbi will reduce the profitability of enterprises in a certain period of time, so that the competitiveness and the share in the international market will decline, which will also intensify competition in certain domestic fields. Some manufacturers of export products will join the ranks of domestic market competition, making the already fierce competition in the domestic market even more fierce. In the first half of 2011, China’s steel exports were weak, and in recent years, China’s adjustment of steel tax revenue was mainly aimed at restricting exports. After the adjustment, the international market demand will be reduced, and the domestic market pressure will increase in the short term. Domestic steel mills will control production by reducing demand, thus achieving the goal of controlling the excessive growth of high-energy-consuming industries. At present, the uncertainties in global economic development have increased, and the growth of demand in major economies has been slow. Coupled with the recent decline in prices in international markets such as flat steel, it has further weakened the export competitiveness of China's steel products. If the RMB appreciates this time, it is estimated that it will continue to affect the foreign trade space of the steel industry. However, it is said that after the Senate has been approved by the Senate, it still needs to be passed in the House of Representatives and signed by US President Barack Obama before it can become law. However, from the current situation, the overall situation is not optimistic.

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