Steel Price Trends: Steady Rising Demand Turning Up Pushing Up Market

In the 15th week of 2011 (4.4-4.8), the Lange Steel (LGMI) Composite Price Index reached 189.7 points, a week-on-month increase of 1.21%, and an increase of 5.8% from the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long products price index was 213.6 points, a week-on-month increase of 1.17%, an increase of 6.44% compared with the same period last year; LGMI sheet price index was 160.9 points, a week-on-week increase of 1.26%, an increase of 4.78% over the same period last year.

According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecast model data, it is expected that the overall price of the domestic steel market will continue to fluctuate and rise next week (2011.4.11-4.15). The Lange Steel Composite Index is expected to fluctuate around 191 points. The average steel price is around RMB 6020 (see Figure 1 for details), and the average fluctuation is around RMB 50.

Figure 1 Lange Steel Price Index Change Trend

1. The market price of major steel products in the country rises or falls

According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, as of April 8th, 2011, the prices of 12 major steel products in the 10 major cities in China have risen and fell. Among them: Φ6.5mm high line average price of 4754 yuan, up 59 yuan last week; Φ25mm secondary rebar average price 4801 yuan, up 71 yuan last week; 5.5mm hot rolled coil average price 4838 yuan, than Weekly up 74 yuan; 1.0mm cold-rolled coil average price 5652 yuan, up 8 yuan last week; 20mm plate price 4919 yuan, up 66 yuan from last week; 4 inches welded pipe price was 4922 yuan, up 46 from last week Yuan; 108*4.5 seamless pipe price was 5,923 yuan, up 15 yuan from last week; 25# I-beam price 4695 yuan, up 12 yuan from last week; domestic 5# angle steel price 4765 yuan, up 19 yuan from last week 25# channel steel prices 4695 yuan, up 7 yuan from last week; 1mm galvanized sheet price 5744 yuan, up 12 yuan last week; 0.47mm color coated board price 6625 yuan, down 30 yuan from last week.

Table 1 Changes in market prices of 17 categories and 31 varieties of 2011 15 weeks (2011.4.4-4.8)

Unit: Yuan Yu Tung

Variety name

Representative product specifications

Major sales market

market price

Change

14 weeks in 2011

15 weeks in 2011

Stainless steel heat level

4 mm

Wuxi

22000

21700

↓300

Color coated board

0.47mm

Jingjin

6350

6300

↓50

Iron ore

66% acid powder dry basis

Hebei

1450

1450

→

Coke

Secondary metallurgical coke

Shanxi

1800

1800

→

Scrap

Heavy waste≥6mm

Shanghai

3650

3650

→

altitude

6.5 mm

Beijing

4780

4780

→

Cold plate

1.0mm

Tianjin

5650

5650

→

Seamless tube

108*4.5

Tianjin

5750

5750

→

I-beam

25#

Beijing

4750

4750

→

Angle Steel

5#

Beijing

4670

4670

→

Channel steel

25#

Beijing

4750

4750

→

Stainless steel cold roll

0.8 mm

Wuxi

25000

25000

→

Carbon steel

45# 20mm

North China

5250

5250

→

Combined steel

40Cr 20mm

North China

5600

5600

→

Galvanized sheet

1 mm

Jingjin

5700

5700

→

Narrowband

355mm

Tangshan and Tianjin

4570

4600

↑30

Broadband

520mm

Tangshan and Tianjin

4590

4620

↑30

Rebar

25 mm

Beijing

4840

4880

↑40

Welded pipe

4 inches (3.75)

Tangshan

4750

4790

↑40

Carbon plate

16-20

Tianjin

4700

4750

↑50

Low alloy plate

16-20

Tianjin

4900

4950

↑50

Variety board

16-20

Tianjin

5030

5080

↑50

Welded pipe

4 inches (3.75)

Beijing

4820

4870

↑50

Seamless tube

108*4.5

Shanghai

5700

5750

↑50

Seamless tube

108*4.5

Liaocheng

5600

5650

↑50

Billet

Carbon 150 billet

Tangshan

4330

4390

↑60

Billet

Low alloy 150 billet

Tangshan

4450

4510

↑60

Hot roll

5.5mm

Tianjin

4680

4750

↑70

Welded pipe

4 inches (3.75)

Tianjin

4780

4860

↑80

Narrowband

145mm

Tangshan and Tianjin

4530

4620

↑90

Hot roll

5.5mm

Shanghai

4650

4750

↑100

2. The adjustment of the ex-factory price of the long steel and sheet products of the dominant steel mills

As the overall steel market continues to show a slight recovery, small steel mills (Shandong Shiheng, Henan Jiyuan, Xiamen Zhongda, Fujian Sanbao, etc.) raised the ex-factory price of long products, and this week the major steel mills also adjusted the ex-factory prices of long products. Mainly, and the ex-factory price of plate species is adjusted. This week, major steel producers such as Egang, Lingsteel, Pancheng Steel, Jinsteel, Kunming Steel, Handan Iron and Steel, Bayi Steel and Baosteel issued pricing policies for major steel products.

At present, the prices of mainstream varieties have risen and fallen, making the market prices in the 15th week (4.4-4.8) of 2011 the same as the inversion prices of the ex-factory prices. The ex-factory price of 7 steel products is higher than the market price (see the table 2) It is unchanged from last week. As the market price rises and falls, and the ex-factory price of steel mills increases, the upside down rate remains basically unchanged; at the same time, only stainless steel heat level and angle iron market prices are lower than the cost price.

Table 2 Comparison of the actual price of the 17th category of 31 varieties in the 15th week (4.4-4.8) and the ex-factory price of major steel mills

Unit: Yuan Yu Tung

Variety name

Representative product specifications

Major sales market

market price

The main steel factory ex-factory price

difference

percentage(%)

Stainless steel heat level

4 mm

Wuxi

21700

24800

-3100

-14.29

Stainless steel cold roll

0.8 mm

Wuxi (TISCO)

25000

26600

-1600

-6.40

Cold plate

1.0mm

Tianjin (Angang Steel)

5650

6000

-350

-6.19

I-beam

25#

Beijing (Laiwu Steel)

4750

4960

-210

-4.42

Channel steel

25#

Beijing (Laiwu Steel)

4750

4860

-110

-2.32

Carbon steel

45# 20mm

North China (first)

5250

5350

-100

-1.90

Variety board

16-20

Tianjin

5080

5110

-30

-0.59

3. It is expected that the price of mainstream steel products will increase slightly in the first week of 2011 (2011.4.11-4.15).

At present, the market is still facing greater supply pressure. The tightening of monetary policy will make it difficult for steel trading companies to raise funds. Both high production and tight funds will have an adverse impact on the steel market. However, in April, the construction project will be fully started. Terminal demand will gradually increase, and the destocking process that promotes social steel stocks will accelerate. In the later period, domestic steel market prices will fluctuate slightly.

National steel stocks have been steadily declining

At present, the nation's steel stocks have been steadily declining. The decline in building materials stocks has slightly accelerated, while the decline in sheet stocks has slowed slightly. According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, on April 8th, the National Steel Social Inventories Index was 199.85 points, down 2.42% from the previous week, which was basically the same as last week's decline rate; of which, the building materials social inventory index was 237.74 points. It fell by 2.42% from the previous week, and was 0.32% faster than last week's decline rate. The social inventory index of slabs was 170.14 points, down 2.51% from the previous week and 0.28% from last week.

Steel ** market gradually clear

In the 15th week of 2011 (4.4-4.8), the trend of the main contract of the 1110 thread still gave people a feeling that the three consecutive days of Yang Xian received more confidence in more singles and allowed the current tangled market to gradually Clearly.

This week, the 10 contracts of screw thread got rid of the embarrassment of 4800. The price has pulled up sharply since the opening on the first trading day, and broke the 4848's neckline position as the double bottom of the technical pattern. The price has also made the market upward. The trading volume began to heat up. In the last two trading days, prices continued to form upward trend, but the price trend slowed down and the amplitude became smaller. The price was pressured at the 60-day moving average and did not break above the 60-day moving average before the close. This is a worry for the trend behind the price.