Last week, the domestic PVC market almost achieved a rapid increase in the daily rise, PVC prices around the raw material calcium carbide cargo prices, PVC companies underemployment, the market supply of goods and other factors is not large, quickly soared to the high point of the year . At the opening on Monday, the calcium carbide method in East China rose by RMB 100 to RMB 150 (t price, the same below) to RMB 7,600 to RMB 7,700 over the previous weekend, while it rose to RMB 7,800 to RMB 7,900 throughout the week. 300 to 350 yuan; in southern China, calcium carbide material began to rise at 70 to 100 yuan on Monday, starting at 7700 to 7800 yuan. It closed at 7850 to 7950 yuan on Friday and gained 220 to 250 yuan for the entire week. At the same time, ethylene PVC also rose faster, such as East and South China market prices from Monday's 7700 ~ 7850 yuan, 7750 ~ 7900 yuan rose to 7900 ~ 8000 yuan and 7950 ~ 8050 yuan, or large, up Speed ​​is also evident. Based on the comprehensive analysis, PVC prices have gradually increased in recent days, and follow-up needs to be supported by volume.
First, the shortage of raw material calcium carbide and the start-up load of PVC enterprises have led to a favorable effect of reduced supply of PVC. At present, the shortage of calcium carbide in China is still on the rise. However, the raw materials can not be reached smoothly, causing the PVC plant's production load to be forced to decline. As a result, the reduction in the domestic operating rate has gradually increased. In a sense, the decline in the operating rate of PVC plants will inevitably affect the overall efficiency of the industry, and the depreciation costs of individual enterprises will also increase accordingly; but from another perspective, the decrease in output will make companies worry about the lack of inventory, the active price increase initiative Also higher.
Second, the rising raw material prices formed a PVC cost support. Affected by the news that calcium carbide enterprises in Inner Mongolia will restrict production, the domestic calcium carbide market once again caused a pull-up. As of the end of last week, the prices of calcium chloride purchased by chlor-alkali enterprises in the Northeast, North China, and Central China have increased by 50 to 100 yuan, and their factory prices are 3640 to 3770 yuan, 3620 to 3720 yuan, and 3550 to 3700 yuan. In terms of imported raw materials, ethylene in Northeast Asia has risen to 1,050 to 1,060 U.S. dollars (CFR); foreign merchants’ EDC prices for Chinese exports are quoting between 520 and 530 U.S. dollars (CFR); in September, VCM transaction prices were 810 U.S. dollars (CFR), for the industry. It is expected that the quotation will be firm at 850-870 U.S. dollars (CFR) next month.
Third, the external environment creates a very good condition for PVC prices to rise. Domestic traders have been unable to withstand the current level of quotes of PVC companies, so the possibility of low-cost short-selling is almost non-existent. Therefore, high-price replenishment naturally raises the PVC market price again after adding certain profits, while the coexistence of reluctance to sell is even more Strengthened expectations of higher prices.
As a whole analysis, the continuous strength of the domestic PVC market since entering September has already formed a peak price this year. It is reported that downstream product companies have made substantial advances in the 7500 to 7600 yuan level of the five types of calcium carbide method. The current high prices have exerted great pressure on customers to make up their positions for the second time, and most of the downstream companies have expressed no urgency in the case of certain reserves. Inquiry, so the domestic PVC prices to a peak, the market still needs to confirm the volume. In the short term, the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are approaching, and PVC prices are likely to be adjusted on a narrow basis on a high basis.