On September 11, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018," which is commonly known as the "5.31 Photovoltaic New Deal" in the industry, which is exactly 100 days.
Ice and fire two days
It is understood that after the introduction of the most stringent regulatory policies in history, the situation facing China's PV industry can be said to be "mixed and mixed."
First, the distributed PV market does not have "shock" therapy and "shock." Recently, the researcher of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, Shi Lili revealed in public that the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics increased by 3.22GW in July, an increase of 1.02GW from 2.20GW in June, indicating that there is still a new incremental increase in the market.
Secondly, after the National Energy Administration adopted a “one size fits all†approach to state subsidies, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui and Guangdong provinces introduced local subsidy policies, which injected a new momentum into the stable and orderly development of the market.
Bud provided a subsidy of 0.37 yuan/kWh for distributed photovoltaic projects, and supplemented for 3 years; a meeting minutes of “Responding to the National New PV Policy†in Zhejiang Province promised to provide 0.32 yuan/kWh and 0.1-0.2 for family roofs and industrial and commercial roofs. Yuan/kWh subsidy.
At the same time, Hefei City, Anhui Province recently released the “Opinions on Further Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industryâ€, which has strongly supported the fields of distributed projects, photovoltaic integration projects and photovoltaic energy storage systems. According to the "Opinions", the subsidy for the distributed project is 0.15 yuan / kWh, and the subsidy is 5 years.
Third, the unsubsidized PV project is advancing and is moving towards the goal of achieving parity online. It is reported that Trina Solar and Yingli Group have begun to respond to the call of the National Energy Administration and are actively promoting non-subsidized photovoltaic demonstration projects.
On August 30th, the management of GCL New Energy (HK:00451) predicted at the 2018 interim results conference that all regions in the country will gradually achieve parity online in the next six months to one year.
Industry analysts pointed out that although there is a big controversy in the industry for the timetable for affordable Internet access, combined with the expansion of the new energy subsidy gap and the introduction of non-subsidized projects, as well as the price cuts in the entire industry chain, this schedule is likely to be significantly advanced. .
It is understood that the single crystal faucet Longji (601012) has lowered the price of monocrystalline silicon wafers for the 10th time. Longji's latest price cut was on July 25th, which lowered the 180μm thickness low-resistance monocrystalline silicon wafer by 0.2 yuan per piece, the domestic price dropped to 3.15 yuan, and the overseas price dropped to 0.395 US dollars.
Remarks: The price cut on December 26, 2017 began to be implemented on January 1, 2018, so it is called 10 consecutive landings.
Another data from the industry shows that the current domestic first-line PV modules have fallen below 2.2 yuan / watt, the system fell nearly 4 yuan / W. The “big diving†of components and system costs indicates that there is a certain feasibility to promote unsubsidized projects. At the same time, it also implies that components and system profits have been pushed to the limit. The days of manufacturers are not good, and they are mostly hard and stiff.
On the one hand, it is the strict regulation of the 5.31 New Deal, and on the other hand, it is poor management and management. In fact, since June 1 this year, many PV companies have made “strategic†adjustments. First, a photovoltaic company in Shandong announced the suspension of production and holiday, and then some large manufacturers began to try to transform, and got a good market reaction.
Prior to this, GCL Integrated (002506) announced that it will continue to focus on the photovoltaic industry as the second major strategic development focus. Component manufacturers such as Trina Solar and Jinko Energy have increased their presence in the Southeast Asian market. Tongwei Group and Longji Shares have expanded their production in the opposite direction, increasing the breadth and depth of the industrial layout.
Will usher in an oligarchy?
As one of the important indicators to measure the performance of the company, Tongwei Group, Sunshine Power, GCL Integrated, Longji, Jingke Energy and Artes, etc., still produce a relatively beautiful interim report. Performance.
On July 11, GCL Integrated (002506.SZ) released the performance revision announcement for the first half of 2018: The company expects that the net profit of shareholders of listed companies will be between 20.41 million yuan and 30.02 million yuan, which is the same as the previous year. At the same time, the single-quarter profit of about 200 million yuan not only has a larger growth than the first quarter, but also the best single-season profit since the year of 2016.
The Tongwei Group’s mid-year report showed that in the first half of 2018, the company realized operating income of RMB 1,246,066,600, a year-on-year increase of 12.24%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 919,354,400, a year-on-year increase of 16.14%, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 890,946,600 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.85%.
Sunshine Power News reported that operating income from January to June 2018 was 3.895 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year; average operating income growth rate of electrical equipment industry was 31.34%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 383 million yuan, year-on-year growth 3.75%, the average net profit growth rate of the electrical equipment industry was 29.62%, and the company's earnings per share was 0.26 yuan.
In the first half of the year, Longji shares achieved revenue of 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.36%; net profit of 1.307 billion yuan, an increase of 5.73% year-on-year, achieving a comprehensive gross profit margin of 22.62%.
Zhengtai Electric announced that its 2018 mid-year report showed that its operating income was 11.9 billion yuan, up 20.16% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.78 billion yuan, up 41.87% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share was 0.83 yuan.
Linyang Energy released its semi-annual report for 2018. During the reporting period, it achieved revenue of 1.61 billion (up 3.4% year-on-year) and net profit of 400 million yuan (up 17.8% year-on-year). The company's high gross profit margin revenue share continued to increase, with a consolidated gross profit margin of 43.5% (up 4.4% year-on-year). The company's three expenses increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 19.5%, mainly due to the substantial increase in financial expenses due to the issuance of convertible bonds.
The 2018 mid-year report released by Dongfang Risheng showed that its operating income was 4.75 billion yuan, down 17.85% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 123 million yuan, down 55.16% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share was 0.1375 yuan.
Benefiting from diversified market layout and steady operating cash flow, as well as resource precipitation in the industry, after the 5.31 New Deal, large PV companies have relatively stable operating performance and also demonstrated strong anti-risk capabilities.
An industry analyst said that the reshuffle of China's PV industry will further accelerate as the PV industry's regulatory policies continue to ferment. In the next year, some small and medium-sized manufacturers will be shuffled out of the market, and the market will enter the "oligarch" era.
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