Abstract The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on the 18th that it will raise its forecast for global economic growth this year, but warned that the rise of protectionism and the lack of global policy coordination will threaten the steady growth of the economy. The IMF predicted in the World Economic Outlook Report released on the same day that this year the global economy...
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on the 18th that it will raise its forecast for global economic growth this year, but warned that the rise of protectionism and the lack of global policy coordination will threaten the steady growth of the economy. In the World Economic Outlook Report released on the same day, the IMF predicted that the global economy is expected to grow by 3.5% this year, up by 0.1 percentage points from the January forecast. The IMF maintains global economic growth expectations for the next year at 3.6%.
IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld said at the press conference that the top reason for raising the global economic growth forecast this year is Europe and Asia, especially China and Japan.
The report predicts that the growth rate of developed economies will be 2% this year and next, and this year's growth rate is expected to increase by 0.1 percentage points from the January forecast. The growth rate is expected to remain unchanged next year. The US economy is expected to grow by 2.3% and 2.5% respectively this year and next, in line with the January forecast; the IMF will raise the euro zone economy's growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 1.7%, and next year's growth expectation will remain unchanged at 1.6%; the Japanese economy will be two years this year and next. It is expected to increase by 1.2% and 0.6% respectively, up by 0.4 percentage points and 0.1 percentage point respectively from the January forecast.
The IMF expects emerging economies and developing countries to grow 4.5% this year, and next year's growth rate will rebound to 4.8%, in line with the January forecast.
The IMF raised China's economic growth forecast for this year and next by 0.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points to 6.6% and 6.2% respectively. The main reason for the increase is that China's economic growth in 2016 is better than expected, and the policy is expected to continue to support the economy to maintain medium- and high-speed growth. The report pointed out that China's economic transformation continues to advance, and the proportion of services and consumption as a percentage of GDP has steadily increased.
Obstfeld said that world economic growth is accelerating, but it is still at risk. The IMF pointed out in the report that factors such as rising protectionism, accelerating interest rate hikes by the Fed, and drastically relaxing financial regulation will threaten the global economic growth momentum and increase the risk of the financial crisis.
Obstfeld pointed out that global economic growth and stability depend on the coordination and cooperation of countries in trade, financial supervision, climate change, and refugee policies. He called on countries to increase their support for global multilateral trade while promoting structural reforms.
The IMF usually publishes the World Economic Outlook Report for the first half of the year and the second half of the year during the spring and autumn annual meetings, and updates the two reports at the middle of the year and the beginning of the following year.
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