Abstract China's steel exports may fall for the first time in 2009 this year. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 8th, in November, China's steel exports fell 15.5% year-on-year to 8.12 million tons; in the first 11 months, it fell 1% year-on-year to 1.0068...
China's steel exports may fall for the first time in 2009 this year. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 8th, in November, China's steel exports fell 15.5% year-on-year to 8.12 million tons; in the first 11 months, it fell 1% year-on-year to 106.68 million tons. This also means that, with only one month left this year, steel exports for the whole year will have to catch up with last year's record high of 112.4 million tons.
In recent months, due to the rising cost of raw materials such as coal and iron ore, steel prices have continued to rise. In the context of de-capacity, many steel mills that had been discontinued have resumed production. While increasing their supply to the domestic market, they have also pushed up the import of iron ore.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first 11 months, China imported 935 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 9.2%; in November, iron ore imports reached 92 million tons, the third record in history.
On Wall Street’s news on the 7th, analysts said: “After this year’s steel price skyrocketing, the medium-frequency furnace steel plant that had been discontinued for a long time in China has resumed production. Due to the rising price of raw materials, the profit of the blast furnace plant has been compressed, using scrap as raw material. The profit of the medium frequency furnace steel mill is far greater than that of the blast furnace plant, which makes it difficult for them to stop production and reduce production."
Analysts believe that the expected decline in market supply may continue from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, which will also promote the shock of steel prices will become the main theme.
Liu Huifeng, a black researcher at CIC Futures, also holds the same view. He said that from November to the Spring Festival, the decline in domestic steel supply is a foregone conclusion, and with the increase in environmental supervision, the decline may be higher than in the same period of the previous year.
“Considering the traditional peak demand season after the Spring Festival, and the real estate control policy will still take some time to transfer to new construction and investment, and the steel inventory in each link is relatively low in the near future, so the steel price will not fall significantly before the first quarter of next year. ""
China's steel production accounts for half of the world's total. In the first half of this year, trade problems caused by China's steel exports continued to be the focus of attention:
In February this year, the European Commission issued a notice saying that it decided to launch anti-dumping investigations on imported stainless steel pipes, medium-thick plates and hot-rolled flat steel products originating in China, and imported cold-rolled steel plates imported from China. Implement temporary anti-dumping measures.
In May, the European Parliament passed a resolution with overwhelming votes, refused to recognize China's market economy status, accused China of over-production and price cuts, and brought serious social, economic and environmental consequences to the EU. The European Parliament resolution mentioned China's overcapacity in steel and cheap exports to Europe.
The US Department of Commerce also decided in the final ruling of the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation announced on May 25 that it would impose up to 450% anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties on corrosion-resistant flat steel from China to replace 256 in early December. % tax rate.
On June 7, US Treasury Secretary Lew said that the United States and China failed to reach a consensus on steel production capacity. Earlier, Lew pointed out at the opening ceremony of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue that China's excess capacity has caused distortions and damage to the global market. China's reduction of production capacity in industries such as steel and aluminum is "important for the operation and stability of the international market." ".
According to Rajiv Biswas, chief Asia-Pacific economist at IHS, the measures for China's steel exports are still effective, and other countries are unlikely to cancel these restrictions in the short term. “China's steel exports will continue to face pressure.â€
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