It is expected that the steel price rise will continue until the end of the year

After November of each year, with the shrinking demand, steel sales will decline. Steel traders will pick up prices at low prices and look forward to returning to work after the spring starts, which will lead to a rebound in steel prices. But this year's winter storage is not obvious.

According to the analysis of related parties, steel traders' funds have been in a tight state this year, and steel prices have risen to a certain extent at the end of the year, prompting some traders to dare not take Dongkuo easily.

However, it is worth noting that, during this period, steel stocks continue to increase. According to the data, as of January 25, the total inventory of major steel products in China was 152.447 million tons, and the growth rate of the warehouse was 5.58%. The increase in warehouse size was significantly greater than in the previous two weeks.

In terms of sub-categories, the stocks of other steel products continued to rise in the previous week, except that the volume of cold-rolled coils continued to fall slightly. Among them, rebar has been increased for 9 consecutive weeks, and is still the largest variety of Masukura.

Steel mills' inventory is also following up. According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, at the end of January, the steel stocks of the steel association member companies were 10,712,500 tons, up 7.17% from the previous period.

However, with the Spring Festival approaching, key steel companies have reduced their scheduling plans and shipments in the mid to late period. At the same time, with the tight supply of billet for a few years ago, some of the billet-rolling mills have also entered a state of suspension or semi-cessation, which has caused the current supply pressure to ease.

The bullish outlook for the relevant analysts believes that the mid-stage steel mills' substantial increase in inventory, in addition to some orders have not been issued orders, there are steel mills themselves optimistic about the market outlook, the goods to be up.

Taking Baosteel as an example, on January 22nd, Baosteel announced in advance the notification of domestic carbon steel sheet ** sales price adjustment in March. Except for oriented silicon steel, which was the same as February, its mainstream hot-rolled and cold-rolled products were higher than February order prices. 200~300 yuan/ton range.

However, with regard to the recent trend of the steel market, Hu Yanping, an analyst at China United Steel Network, believes that the steel market will be hard to do before the Spring Festival, and the overall adjustment will be mainly narrow. If demand does not improve in time after the holiday, steel prices will face adjustment pressure.

Analysts believe that steel prices will continue to maintain their upward trend in April and May. On the one hand, they will be supported by raw material prices. On the other hand, the area of ​​new real estate starts will increase.