IMF: China's economic growth will slow down to 6.8%

On the evening of April 14th, Beijing time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the "World Economic Outlook" report that China's economic growth is expected to slow down to 6.8% in 2015, which is lower than the IMF's forecast in October 2014. 0.3%.

On the eve of the 2015 IMF World Bank Spring Meeting, the IMF released the latest issue of the World Economic Outlook report. According to the report, China’s economic growth rate in 2014 is maintained at 7.4%, but economic growth in 2015 is expected to slow down to 6.8%, which is 0.3% lower than the forecast of the IMF report in October 2014, mainly due to Chinese real estate, Further tightening of credit and investment.

The report pointed out that China's investment growth has slowed down last year, including the real estate market that once flourished in 2009-12. However, the impact of the slowdown in investment was partially offset by China's stimulus policies, but the Chinese government is expected to continue to reduce the vulnerability of recent high-speed credit and investment growth: “Therefore, investors may be more worried about future economic growth. Slow risk, such emotions will also be reflected in current investment activities."

For medium-term risks, the report specifically mentions the hard landing of China's economy: “The growth of credit and investment was once the key to China's economic growth, but its vulnerability is also accumulating. The Chinese government can make use of public resources and government influence, To gain space to avoid a sharp slowdown in growth.” The IMF believes that China’s reforming to rebalance the economy is an important means of reducing risk: “Because there is no reform to change the economic growth model, the vulnerability will continue to accumulate, and the available policy space Will be further reduced.

The report believes that China's structural reforms and the decline in commodity prices will stimulate consumer-led activities, which will partially slow down the Chinese economy. The IMF suggested that China should strengthen supervision of the financial industry, and at the same time liberalize deposit interest rates and increase dependence on interest rates as a tool for currency; at the same time, reform of the fiscal and social security system, especially the reform of state-owned enterprises, should be made to the public and private sectors. The competition is at the same level.

According to the report, developed economies are expected to accelerate growth compared to 2014, while emerging market growth is slowing. Emerging markets face this growth prospect, mainly because the prospects of some large emerging market economies are weakening, and the sharp drop in oil prices has led to a weakening of economic activity in some major oil exporting countries: “Chinese authorities will now pay more attention to lightening credit and investment in the near term. The fragility brought about by growth. Therefore, our forecast assumes that investment will slow further, especially in real estate investment."

“However, emerging markets and developing economies will still account for more than 70% of global growth in 2015.” The IMF pointed out: “For the entire Asia-Pacific region, institutional reforms are urgently needed to regain economic efficiency. Especially in China, Both the financial industry and state-owned enterprises are in urgent need of reform to improve the efficiency of resource allocation."

The report also specifically mentions the global impact of falling oil prices: “The fall in oil prices has led to a significant redistribution of real income from oil-exporting countries to oil-importing countries. Preliminary evidence shows that oil importing countries in the US, Eurozone, China, India, etc. The increase in real income has led to an increase in spending. Oil-exporting countries have cut spending, but to a lesser extent; many of them have considerable financial reserves and are able to cut spending slowly."

The IMF's baseline forecast is that developed economies will perform better this year than last year. Emerging markets and low-income countries will slow down compared to last year. As a result, global growth rates will be roughly the same as last year. However, there are specific differences in this overall outlook. Specific to global risks, the IMF believes that macroeconomic risks have declined slightly. The main risks of last year (the risk of the eurozone falling into recession) have fallen, and the risk of deflation has also fallen, but financial and geopolitical risks have risen.

"If the exchange rate changes drastically, it may cause further financial risks and reignite the discussion of currency wars." The IMF warned: "The possibility of a crisis in Greece cannot be ruled out. Once such an event occurs, it will definitely cause financial markets to happen. The turmoil in Ukraine and the Middle East continues, although it has not yet caused a systemic economic impact."

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