Abstract On the 23rd, the National Development and Reform Commission website, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on the implementation of the ladder electricity price policy for electrolytic aluminum enterprises," and decided to implement a ladder price policy for electrolytic aluminum enterprises from January 1, 2014. Analyst said that if the ladder price
On the 23rd of the website of the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on the Implementation of the Ladder Electricity Price Policy for Electrolytic Aluminum Enterprises", and decided to implement the ladder price policy for electrolytic aluminum enterprises from January 1, 2014. Analysts said that if the ladder price is truly implemented, the company's loss will increase greatly. More companies will join the stop production and production army next year, and the industry will face reshuffle.
Policy implementation is key
The notice is clear, according to the actual level of electricity used by electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the previous year, the price is determined by the file. The liquid electricity consumption of aluminum liquid electrolysis is not higher than 13,700 kWh per ton, and the normal electricity price is implemented; above 13700 kWh per ton but not higher than 13,800 kWh, the price increases by 0.02 yuan per kWh; higher than 13800 per ton In kilowatt hours, the price of electricity increases by 0.08 yuan per kWh.
The "Notice" pointed out that all localities should regulate the direct trading behavior of electrolytic aluminum enterprises and power generation enterprises. If the aluminum liquid electrolysis AC power consumption is higher than 13,700 kWh per ton or the energy conservation assessment target is not completed, it shall not be directly engaged in electricity trading with the power enterprise; if it is not higher than 13,350 kWh per ton, the relevant departments of the provincial people's government shall give priority to supporting it. Participate in direct electricity trading. All localities shall not reduce the price of electricity for electrolytic aluminum enterprises by themselves, and those that have already implemented electricity price concessions shall immediately correct them. At the same time, it is necessary to strictly implement the relevant provisions on the government fund, additional and system backup fees for self-supplied power of self-supplied power plants of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and may not reduce or exempt them.
The "Notice" also requires that provincial-level price, industry, energy-saving competent departments and power grid enterprises should work closely according to their responsibilities, establish and improve relevant supporting systems, and jointly implement the implementation of the electricity price policy for electrolytic aluminum enterprises. At the same time, the electricity bills for the implementation of the stepped electricity price increase for electrolytic aluminum enterprises must be strictly managed and standardized.
The implementation date of this ladder price began on January 1, 2014, and it is quite urgent. However, Zhuo Chuang Information analysts believe that policy implementation is more important.
The above analysts said that since this year, Henan, Shanxi and other provinces are actively applying for direct purchase power policy, and some aluminum enterprises in Shanxi have reached a direct purchase agreement with local power plants, the price of electricity is about 0.05-0.1 yuan / kW. In addition, some provinces in the southwestern region are accustomed to adopting tariff subsidies and tax rebates to help aluminum companies reduce production costs. If the policy is implemented, the above behavior will be stopped at the source, which will definitely increase the production cost of the enterprise.
Since last year, the national level has repeatedly stated that it is necessary to resolve the overcapacity contradiction as the focus of the adjustment of the industrial structure, but the production capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has become more and more. According to the above analysts, as of now, the domestic built capacity has reached 32.609 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate has only maintained at around 80%.
He pointed out that this notice was only requested from the policy level and there was no clear way to implement it. If the power consumption is reported by the enterprise, there must be an operation space, and it is difficult to determine the authenticity of the reported data. If the NDRC directly sends a commissioner to investigate, it faces technical and regional problems. Whether the policy can be truly implemented will be the key to the trend of the electrolytic aluminum industry.
The actual electricity consumption level of the electrolytic aluminum enterprise is determined as the comprehensive AC power consumption of the aluminum liquid, which is lower than the comprehensive AC power consumption of the aluminum ingots that we usually count. According to statistics, in the current operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum, the comprehensive AC power consumption of aluminum liquid is 1.6-1.7 million tons/year above 13,700 kWh/ton, and the comprehensive AC power consumption is above 13800 kWh/ton. 1.3 million tons / year. In the actual accounting, the self-adjustment space of the enterprise is relatively large. When the definition is not very clear, it is difficult to calculate the actual aluminum AC comprehensive AC power consumption. Therefore, companies that can be implemented differential electricity prices in the future are expected to be more limited.
Industry reshuffle is inevitable
An industry insider said that the operating rate of China's aluminum smelting enterprises has fallen below 70%. Among these idle production capacity, the backward production capacity is mostly, and there are certain weaknesses in terms of energy consumption, waste discharge, and production cost.
The backward production capacity still exists, mainly because it is profitable. But with the fall in aluminum prices, the supporting role in this area is also weakening. Since 2013, aluminum prices have continued the weak trend of last year, and have already fallen below the cost line. The domestic aluminum smelting industry has long been in a loss-making business. The possibility of further decline in aluminum prices in the market remains, and the living environment of electrolytic aluminum enterprises will continue to deteriorate, and the market's role in eliminating backward production capacity of electrolytic aluminum industry will be further released.
It is understood that in 2013, the domestic aluminum industry's electricity consumption per ton of aluminum is around 13762 degrees, and the average industry cost is 15240.32 yuan / ton. Under the current normal electricity price conditions, there are still 11.666 million tons of loss-making capacity. For every additional penny of electricity price, the production cost of the enterprise will increase by 138 yuan / ton. If the ladder price is truly implemented, the loss of the enterprise will increase greatly. More enterprises will join the stop production and production army next year, and the industry will face reshuffle.
The notice reflects the government's determination to adjust the capacity of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, which is conducive to the market's automatic adjustment of existing electrolytic aluminum production capacity. Some high-cost, less competitive electrolytic aluminum enterprises will gradually withdraw from the market and truly form domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity. Structural optimization. In 2013, there have been more than 1.2 million tons/year of electrolytic aluminum production capacity reduction in China. It is expected that the aluminum production reduction will continue in the next year when the overall aluminum price is not optimistic.
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