Seeing steady growth in the second quarter
According to the "China Economic Outlook Analysis - Spring 2013 Report" released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on April 26, the Chinese economy is expected to continue to grow steadily in 2013, and the GDP growth rate is expected to reach 8%.
However, the weight-bearing move is still the key word for economic development in the second quarter. China Merchants Securities Research Report pointed out that China currently faces six major problems, such as debt burden, excess capacity burden, regulation of the real estate market, and prevention of asset price inflation, strategic emerging industry cultivation and value-added transformation, reform of dividends in deep-water areas, and global competition. The macro economy and the stock market have to move forward under load.
In the context of slowing economic growth beyond expectations, the steady growth of policy regulation is also seen as an important factor supporting the economic operation in the second quarter. According to a recent report by Monita, behind the lower-than-expected economic data, the government's steady growth may increase again compared with the fourth quarter of last year. The current investment situation shows that the investment in the central project in March ended in October last year. The rapid slowdown began to pick up, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first quarter has reached a new high in the quarter since 2010.
Increase micro-control flexibility
BOC International analyzed that the requirement to curb the real estate bubble ruled out the possibility of easing. The primary consideration behind steady growth is to stabilize employment. In the Chinese labor market, with the change in population structure and the increase in labor protection, the situation of labor supply and demand has changed significantly.
At present, maintaining the stability of macroeconomic policies and increasing microeconomic policy flexibility are the main objectives of government regulation. Shenyin Wanguo believes that the current policy changes are unlikely, although the economic growth is lower than expected, but the employment indicators are good, the government did not mention the economic downward pressure in the judgment of the economic situation, which also means the government to the economy The tolerance is improving.
Under the current steady growth of macroeconomic regulation and control, infrastructure investment is still seen as an important means of stabilizing the economy. Lianxun Securities pointed out that China's current economic downside is relatively small, and the government is likely to launch a number of infrastructure investments in the second quarter to raise the center of economic fluctuations.
Industry experts also stressed that demand management tools will delay the pace of economic restructuring. At present, China's macroeconomic policy should shift from demand management to demand management and supply management, especially to strengthen supply management. Li Yang, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that policy regulation should put structural adjustment in the first place, release the reform dividend, and at the same time, it needs a supply mechanism to further the city, allowing labor, capital, land and other factors to flow freely, so that its pricing reflects the supply and demand signals. .
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