The Ching Ming Festival has passed. Although the market has not seen any surge in the past years, it still makes the steel market in the abyss a little bit bright. In March, the steel price in the market showed a slight increase. The steel market has always been “golden, silver and silverâ€. In March, it is obviously not a "gold". Can the steel market go out of the trough in April and rekindle market confidence? The arrival of the "Golden 3 Silver 4" in the peak season is a rare opportunity for the steel industry. . At present, merchants have concentrated their efforts on full-scale shipments. In order to achieve a deal, the market is not only a phenomenon of bargain-price promotion; on the other hand, various terminal manufacturers are also calculating, and now production can stagger the season of lack of electricity, and can control the sales slowly by holding inventory. Without him, the peak season is like a small village. After passing this village, there is no such store. Until the fall and winter, whether the industrial chain will once again usher in the second spring, I am afraid that no one can predict. In the southern region, the total inventory has gradually fallen back to Foshan Lecong in South China. As the second largest region of the country's steel sheet inventory, the largest purchase area of ​​steel manufacturing terminals, the total amount of resources has a significant role in the steel market price trend. The author made some statistics on the total inventory of cold and hot rolled sheet in Lecong in South China since March last year. After the peak season in March last year, due to restrictions on production and demand, the total inventory of Lecong in the south has a long period. Fall back process. At the beginning of 2012, steel mills saw the rapid production of steel traders before the Spring Festival. The total amount of resources and steel prices rose steadily. From now until now, the total amount of hot rolling has tended to fall, and the total cold rolling consumption is slow. Smooth. The author expects that after the peak season of the steel market in March and April this year, the inventory will also fall back. The steel price will remain consolidating due to the weak balance between supply and demand, and the possibility of a sharp rise or fall is unlikely. In March, steel mills raised prices in April. The steel market cost support was obvious. In March, major domestic steel mills successively introduced the ex-factory prices of resources in April. Generally, they all increased their prices in disguised form by canceling concessions, reducing transportation and reducing interest rates. Some steel mills, such as Bengang, have indicated that the April contract cold rolling, hot rolling, galvanizing and other products have an increase of 50-70 yuan / ton. Either way, the rise in steel prices is a clear direction. Why are major domestic steel mills going up? The author believes that the biggest reason is that the steel price fell sharply in the fourth quarter of last year, and the steel mills suffered a large loss. It is already very good to turn losses in the first two months of this year. In the next peak season, the steel price will not be mentioned, and the steel mill may have to go all the way to raise pigs and sell wine. The rising market is not worthy of too optimistic about the rise in steel prices, which has to be compared with the country's macroeconomic growth targets. Last month, the "two sessions" were held. Premier Wen Jiabao said that this year's domestic GDP growth target is adjusted to below 8%, which means that we are now shifting from pursuing economic growth to pursuing economic growth. The steel mill's price increase in March, to a certain extent, has taken the steel market up the year. Although the current situation has not yet constituted an “overdraftâ€, the “silver April†market is not worthy of optimism. Judging from the market feedback, business confidence is still optimistic at the beginning of this month, and the pressure on funds has eased. Coupled with the continuous increase in the cost of late arrivals, the steel market is expected to continue the trend of upward shocks in March, driven by the cost of steel prices. However, considering that the steel mill's profit per ton of steel production is flat or slightly profitable in April, the steel mill may increase productivity in April and increase the supply pressure in the later period. Therefore, the steel price in the later period is not expected to continue to rise as expected.
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