The power industry has been steadily improving its on-grid tariffs for the third time last year. However, due to limited price adjustments, short time and rising coal prices, the performance of the power industry is still difficult to get rid of the decline. The performance of Huaneng Power International and Datang Power Generation, which reported the annual report in the previous period, decreased by 64.3% and 23% respectively in 2011, which was significantly lower than expected. In the context of the macroeconomic slowdown this year, the growth rate of power demand has declined, and the situation of tight power supply is obviously better than last year. The expectation of raising the price of on-grid again is not expected. However, due to factors such as the hikes of the upward adjustment of on-grid tariffs last year and the emergence of the RCRC's results of coal price control, the performance of the power industry this year is better than that of 2011. Thermal power performance improved into consensus To ease the tension of power consumption, the National Development and Reform Commission raised the price of thermal power on-grid three times in April-June and December last year. Especially in December last year, the NDRC intervened on the price of coal while raising the price of electricity, requiring the price increase of contract coal to be controlled within 5%, and the maximum price limit for trading coal in the market. The policy stimulus caused thermal power to achieve performance recovery growth expectations, and also caused the power industry to stage a market-out trend in the period from April to June and November to December last year. However, the operation of the power industry has not improved significantly. Due to the increase in electricity consumption and the decline in hydropower output, thermal power companies have seen a significant increase in power generation last year. However, the annual coal price remained high and performance was dragged down. Huaneng, Datang and other power generation groups have indicated that the price increase has not covered the cost, and the thermal power business is still losing money. Despite the loss of thermal power business, this year's economic growth rate is a foregone conclusion. Excluding the leap year factor, the electricity consumption growth rate in January and February is less than 50% of last year, and the situation of tight power supply has not appeared yet. Expected to weaken. Therefore, whether the profit of the thermal power industry can really reverse, and ultimately depends on the trend of coal prices. Affected by the slowdown in economic growth and the price limit of the National Development and Reform Commission, coal prices have continued to decline since the end of last year. Although they have rebounded recently, their gains are no longer strong. At the same time, as the economy continues to decline and energy demand shrinks, this year's coal price increase is lower than last year is a high probability event. Some analysts estimate that coal prices have risen by about 3%, while last year's coal price rose by as much as 8%. In the case of stable coal prices, due to the hikes in December last year, electricity prices in 2012 increased by about 6% year-on-year, and the profitability of the thermal power industry is expected to improve significantly. Some insiders predict that the total profit of the thermal power industry will reach 86.6 billion yuan, and quickly return to the profit level in 2009. There is a risk that hydropower will depend on the weather. The hydropower industry is mainly determined by the water supply. In 2011, the main rivers in the main rivers were mostly dry, and the power generation of hydropower enterprises was generally reduced. The utilization hours of the national hydropower units decreased by 376 hours compared with the same period of last year, and the annual power generation decreased by 3.5%. According to historical hydrological experience, the annual average increase or decrease of water in the country is 0.7%, that is, the water situation has been stable for many years. In most years, the incoming water fluctuates between plus and minus 10%, and the probability of continuous drought for many years is small. Therefore, it is expected that the incoming water in 2012 will turn better. However, the average utilization hour of hydropower in January-February this year was 326 hours, a decrease of 49 hours from the same period of the previous year and a decrease of 13.0% year-on-year. This means that hydropower is unfavorable. This can also be seen from the listed company's annual report. Hydropower listed company Wuyuan Power is expected to have a net loss of RMB 78-83 million in the first quarter of 2012, while the net profit attributable to the same period in 2011 was RMB 579,200. In fact, the main reason for the company's loss in the first quarter was the drought in the south of January and February this year. Although the main rivers in the spring are not dry, it does not represent the annual water supply. The annual flood season in June, July and August is the highest profit for the whole year, accounting for about 45% of the total profit for the year. The essential. However, the water supply situation in summer cannot be clearly estimated. Therefore, there is still a large uncertainty in the recovery of hydropower performance.
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