“I recently saw a large European investment bank, which is too much for commodity prices. The agency’s stock department, China’s economic research department and the global commodity sector have three views. Among them are very bearish The important basis is the decline of China's economy and the reduction of demand. In the end, we have to send out the opinions of the three departments at the same time to let the customers judge. This is a more honest attitude." Recently, at a forum in Shanghai, the Development Research Center of the State Council The words of the deputy director of the institute, Ba Shusong, revealed the "tangled" mentality of some foreign-funded institutions on the Chinese economy and commodities. Overseas public opinion sees the resurgence of foreign institutions. There is still a dispute over the direction of the Chinese economy. There is no "tangled", and some international public opinion has issued many negative and pessimistic bearish voices of the Chinese economy. Recently, the US "Wall Street Journal", Bloomberg News, Japan's "Fuji Sankeshang" and many overseas media have published "China's economic feast is about to end with people?" "The Chinese economy has entered the "hard landing" stage", "local debt expansion may lead to China's economic stall" and other articles such as "seeing China." Among them, some believe that since 2008, China's economic growth has been an illusion to some extent. Three to four percent of China's 8% to 10% GDP growth is driven by new loans. Among these loans, up to 20% to 25% of the loans may become bad debts, with a loss equivalent to 6% to 10% of GDP. If these losses are subtracted, the growth rate of the Chinese economy will be much lower. Observing the various remarks, "soft landing" or "hard landing" has always been the focus of foreign media debate. Some people believe that under the combined influence of China's domestic inflation, external RMB appreciation and trade protectionism, foreign exports have shrunk severely, while domestic demand has been insufficient, and most commodities have been oversupplied. At the same time, real estate regulation has led to a decline in investment growth and exposure of local financing platforms, which is also the basis for bearishness. The trend of the stock market is, to a certain extent, seen as reflecting the concerns of investors. Gong Fangxiong, managing director of JP Morgan Asia Pacific, said frankly, "The current stock market trend is completely different from that in 2009. In 2009, driven by 4 trillion investment, the Chinese economy took the lead in picking up, and A-shares also bottomed out. In other words, this A-share market has rebounded slightly when the US stocks hit a record high, indicating that the Chinese economy is a follower rather than a leader.†The Japanese “Huasheng†monthly magazine summarizes the reasons for pessimism into five points: First, the Chinese economy is dying in the real estate bubble, while the Chinese stock market has been weak. Second, the “financing platform†that borrows large amounts of money on the premise of rising house prices is not stable, and there is a risk of inciting the financial system. Third, Europe Financial institutions have been hit by the “sovereign debt crisisâ€. Due to the difficulty of dollar financing and the need to increase their own capital adequacy ratio, the balance of loans to emerging countries is being squeezed. Fourth, due to the deterioration of the European economy, China’s exports are reduced, plus the RMB exchange rate. Rising, export-oriented SMEs in the coastal areas have been severely hit; in the end, China’s competition as a world factory Decline. The traditional view is that China will be able to continue to stimulate demand by taking advantage of its huge foreign exchange reserves, large domestic deposits and low debt levels. But the high external reserves are also a double-edged sword. The Wall Street Journal article said that if China tries to dispose of its foreign exchange reserve assets in a large amount, it will lead to a sharp depreciation of the overseas securities it invests in, and the appreciation of the renminbi against the relevant foreign currency, which will cause huge losses to China. In addition, holding large foreign exchange reserves has forced China to buy more US dollar, euro and yen securities to protect the value of existing foreign exchange reserves, thus increasing the scale and risk of the problem. Wall Street investment banks sang in the same breath as foreign media. Since March, a large number of foreign investment banks have begun to turn and collectively expressed their opinions on the 2012 Chinese economy. The industry consensus is that the first quarter of this year is likely to be the bottom of this round of China's economic correction. Investment banks, including Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Nomura Securities, and Royal Bank of Scotland, have raised China's economic growth rate to between 8.2% and 8.8%. It is worth noting that these upward adjustments are triggered by the Chinese government's adjustment of the GDP growth target to 7.5%. Among them, Nomura Securities' forecast for China's economy has been raised from 7.9% to 8.2%. The agency predicted last year that the Chinese economy is likely to land a third before the end of 2014. Qiao Hong, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Greater China, said in an interview that the growth forecast of the Chinese economy is 8.4%. “In the beginning, our forecast was the second highest in the market. Now everyone is catching up. The international investment bank’s previous forecast for China’s economy this year is between 7.9% and 8.6%. Recently, the main investment banks of Wall Street have raised the value to 8.2. Between % and 8.8%, it is basically believed that there is no hard landing in the Chinese economy.†For the question of the huge difference between 7.5% and 8.4%, Qiao Hong explained that 7.5% is the government's work target and 8.4% is the investment bank's forecast. The Chinese government's downward adjustment of economic growth is mainly to release a big signal. It is hoped that all parties will focus their work on transforming the way of economic development, reflecting that the Chinese economy will shift from the emphasis on the past to the emphasis on quality and efficiency. In her view, despite the downside risks to foreign demand this year, the Chinese economy has gradually shifted from relying on external demand to relying on domestic demand. As for domestic demand, which is still in an investment-driven rather than a consumption-driven situation, it also has the opportunity to rebalance. "The contribution of China's GDP this year will come from two aspects, one is investment and the other is consumption. The ratio of the two accounts for 4.3% and 4.1% respectively, while the contribution rate of external demand is only zero." Unlike the big motorcycle, some investment banks have raised The forecast did not give up the contribution of foreign demand to the Chinese economy. Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Greater China, said that the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) indicator in the US, Japan and the Eurozone has improved in recent months when it raised China's economic growth rate to 8.6%. Historical data shows that the US, Japan and Europe PMI indicators rose by 1.5 percentage points, corresponding to a 5 percentage point increase in China's export growth rate. Deutsche Bank expects that China's exports will grow by 8% year-on-year in the first half of this year and will accelerate to 18% in the second half. In addition, as real estate prices tend to be reasonable, the impact of the real estate industry on China's fixed asset investment does not seem to be as strong. Investment banks such as UBS and Barclays Capital all said that China's fixed asset investment growth rate was strong from January to February, exceeding previous market expectations. Ma Jun judged that the impact of the slowdown of the real estate industry on the overall economy is controllable, and the impact will be short-term. The growth rate of investment may be stabilized in the second half of 2012. Cui Li, chief economist of the Royal Bank of Scotland in China, also agrees with this view. She believes that the investment and consumption data at the beginning of the year only showed a slight decline, indicating that the economy is on a soft landing track. In particular, the fixed asset investment that cooled down at the end of last year stabilized in the first two months of this year. The actual reason behind this may be the acceleration of the construction of affordable housing. The singer of the Chinese is "completely wrong." Foreign investment banks sing in unison and reasonably refute the bearish voice of foreign media. American investment guru Jim Rogers recently said in an interview with the media that singing Chinese is "completely wrong." "The United States experienced 15 Great Depressions in the 19th century. We have no human rights, no rule of law, and a terrible civil war. But we became the most successful country in the 20th century." Rogers explained the development of the United States. China will also encounter many setbacks. “The Chinese people’s savings rate is very high. They save more than 35% of their income, so even if their situation gets worse, there are things that can be relied upon, which is very different from the situation in the United States and other parts of the world,†Rogers said. As for what kind of "frustration" the Chinese economy will face in the future, foreign media and foreign-funded institutions have the same view, that is, the debt risk that local financing platforms may break out. According to an article published by Bloomberg, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has repeatedly stressed that local debt is controllable on the grounds that the proportion of local debt to total GDP is relatively low. And this optimism seems to have changed in the near future, and the risk of local debt is seriously underestimated. “The China Banking Regulatory Commission pointed out to the banks last month that about 1.8 trillion yuan of local government loans were mistakenly classified as the safest type of loans. Banks made mistakes in calculating and understanding the risks when making loan decisions, resulting in these loans. It is classified as a project with full coverage of cash flow," Bloomberg quoted sources as saying. In this regard, Zhang Yi, a senior analyst at Moody's, an international rating agency, said: "Our stress test shows that if there is no government assistance, these loans will have 20% to 33% of bad loans. Assuming that this 1.8 trillion yuan full coverage loan is renewed After categorization, the risk weight will increase by 50%. In fact, banks have begun to postpone the period of local debt, avoiding the tide of default, and local governments have also called for “loan extensionsâ€. Recently, the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a document requesting banks not to add new financing platform loans in principle. For platform loans due this year, banks are required to work together with various financing platforms to formulate detailed repayment plans, and the plans will be submitted to the banking regulatory bureaus by the end of April this year. Researchers believe that the regulatory rules that the regulator chose to introduce local financing platform loans at this time are mainly because the platform loan will usher in the first round of debt repayment in 2012. According to the "National Local Government Debt Audit Results" published by the National Audit Office, from the debt repayment year, 17.71% will be repaid in 2012, and 11.37%, 9.28% and 7.48 respectively will be repaid from 2013 to 2015. %, 30.21% due after 2016. Although on the surface, the local government's fiscal revenue increase pressure and debt repayment pressure are constantly increasing, but in the future, China's economic growth trend is still good, many people in the industry are still happy to see the local debt problem. “In the future, we can try to treat local debt in the bank’s balance sheet and then digest it through economic growth,†said He Zhicheng, senior economist at the Agricultural Bank of China.
Dies And Hand Tools,Grommet Kit,Grommet Punch,Eyelet Punch Tool
NINGBO ZONGLAN MECHANICAL AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURE CO., LTD , https://www.zonglaneyelet.com