The new energy industry is seen as a “catalyst†for economic growth in the “post-financial crisis eraâ€. However, even this kind of “halo†industry that envelopes emerging strategic industries, high-tech environmental protection industries, renewable and sustainable industries needs to be overcome after overcoming the “failure†symptoms such as investment bubbles and overcapacity. Healthy development.
China's photovoltaic industry is a microcosm of the development of new energy. Although it has not yet achieved a "soft landing" from the inertia of the rapid growth of the past few years, the industry is gradually calming down from fanaticism and passion to plan the future in a more rational way.
Real bubble or fake bubble
It is hard for ordinary people to think that the production of polycrystalline silicon for solar photovoltaic power generation will be the same as that of the traditional steel industry, and it will be “named†by the State Council as overcapacity and redundant construction. In the middle of last year, it has been showing the first "yellow card warning" for the rushing photovoltaic industry. The National Development and Reform Commission subsequently issued a planning document, pointing out that the photovoltaic industry should control production capacity and develop reasonably and healthily.
The main raw material for photovoltaic power generation is polysilicon. The data shows that China's polysilicon production was 60 tons in 2005, 287 tons in 2006, 1156 tons in 2007, and 4,000 tons in 2008. In the first half of 2009 alone, nearly 50 companies in more than 20 provinces including Sichuan, Henan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are building, expanding and preparing polysilicon production lines with a total construction scale of over 100,000 tons.
Shi Zhengrong, one of the “leading†of the domestic PV industry and chairman of Wuxi Suntech Power Co., said in a forum that only a few years later, China’s photovoltaic production capacity expanded drastically. In 2007 and 2008, the industry’s production capacity and output ranked World number one. He believes that "photovoltaic foam" has emerged. As the raw materials of polysilicon are all imported, China's photovoltaic industry has "great leap forward", which has made the price of raw materials from 50 US dollars per kilogram to 500 US dollars in the three years from 2006 to 2008.
To a certain extent, the financial crisis has blown away a lot of bubbles. During the tightening period of the “post-crisis eraâ€, there were once pessimistic estimates in the industry that at least 50% of small and medium-sized PV companies were facing production suspension. The price of raw materials in the international market also fell from the highest of $500/kg to $50/kg.
However, the industry's cooling seems to be only temporary. Since the beginning of this year, with the strong demand in the international market, polysilicon prices have begun to show signs of rebound. The news from photovoltaic companies such as Wuxi Suntech, Tianwei Baobian and Tuo Xinxin Energy is also very optimistic. These companies, which have been worried about the decline in performance and losses since last year, are currently at full production, and some orders have already been placed next year.
A senior energy analyst at Industrial Securities believes that China is already the "most economical" manufacturing base for polysilicon solar energy in the world. In 2009, global solar cell production was around 10G watts, while China accounted for 40%. At the same time, as China's PV production is mainly based on exports, this round of industry recovery called “Second Spring†relies mainly on the recovery of international market demand.
It is reported that Germany, as the world's largest photovoltaic market, the government's development prospects are still widely optimistic even if the government is preparing to cut subsidies. The United States is the largest potential market. In July, US President Barack Obama said he would spend $1.85 billion to support two solar companies. In the “post-crisis eraâ€, Japan has always regarded the activation of the solar market as an important means of stimulating the economy, including solar giants such as Japan’s Sharp and Sanyo, all of which publicly pointed out the proportion of external orders for photovoltaic cells in 2010.
The heat of industry expansion is not diminished, and the domestic "bubble" criticism is also endless. Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, believes that renewable energy, including photovoltaic solar energy, is positioned as a strategic emerging industry, but it is far from universal. According to the long-term plan, renewable energy will play an "important substitution" role in 2030, and will become "an important part of the main energy source" in 2050. At present, the more realistic views in the industry are that the cost of renewable energy is high, the price of electricity is high, and there is still much room for improvement in technology.
In addition, the central government's policy of supporting new energy development will be constrained by financial resources. In addition to the “Golden Sun Plan†subsidized subsidies for demonstration projects, the state currently draws 4 cents per kilowatt-hour of electricity to subsidize renewable energy. According to the scale, in 2009, the country can spend more than 10 billion yuan to subsidize renewable energy generation, which is far less than the development speed of renewable energy.
Meng Xianyu emphasized that the total amount of renewable energy exceeded the target, and the government could not acquire it. The development of new energy must match the national conditions. From the current practice, "local governments are obviously a little radical." In some places, the "three Gorges of the wind power" and "China Sun City", etc., the new energy projects on the fast-moving, are likely to be separated from the market's capacity.
Core technology is about life and death
As early as the bubble swelled, Shi Zhengrong, chairman of Suntech Power Co., criticized that it usually takes two years or longer for PV companies to build factories, with funds ranging from 100 million to 300 million dollars. Under the temptation of profiteering, some investors And the entrepreneurs shortened the construction period to six months, resulting in environmental problems and quality problems.
He believes that for an emerging industry, "excess" is only a phased surplus, not a permanent surplus. The overcapacity of polysilicon pointed out by the State Council is actually "low-end overcapacity, inefficient overcapacity and inferior overcapacity."
“From photovoltaic myth to photovoltaic foam may be just a step away.†Shi Zhengrong said that if this myth continues, it must rely on continuous innovation in technology, business models and international competitiveness. If you still only focus on manufacturing and do not pay attention to scientific research, resulting in "technical short legs", only pay attention to short-term interests and not pay attention to long-term benefits, it is "killing chickens and taking eggs."
Some industry analysts believe that the "temperature difference" between the central and local governments in the development of new energy, that is, the local enthusiasm is significantly higher than the central policy, mainly because of the "only GDP theory". In the core technology of new energy, it is often the local governments that are unwilling to invest. They think that they are investing in their own interests and think that they are investing heavily, and they are slower in their efforts. They are more interested in short, flat and fast projects, so as long as the infrastructure is built up. The introduction of technology, or direct import, assembly, assembly, the industry has become bigger, the digital indicators of the local economy are better, but the long-term benefits and profits are not necessarily much.
It is understood that the core technology of polysilicon production - trichlorosilane reduction method is monopolized by a few companies in the United States, Germany, Japan and other countries, it is difficult for Chinese companies to obtain key technologies. The polysilicon material production process is high-end in the industrial chain, accounting for 50% of the cost. If you do not master the core technology and technology, it will not only cause pollution, but also directly affect product quality.
China's photovoltaic industry is a microcosm of the development of new energy. Although it has not yet achieved a "soft landing" from the inertia of the rapid growth of the past few years, the industry is gradually calming down from fanaticism and passion to plan the future in a more rational way.
Real bubble or fake bubble
It is hard for ordinary people to think that the production of polycrystalline silicon for solar photovoltaic power generation will be the same as that of the traditional steel industry, and it will be “named†by the State Council as overcapacity and redundant construction. In the middle of last year, it has been showing the first "yellow card warning" for the rushing photovoltaic industry. The National Development and Reform Commission subsequently issued a planning document, pointing out that the photovoltaic industry should control production capacity and develop reasonably and healthily.
The main raw material for photovoltaic power generation is polysilicon. The data shows that China's polysilicon production was 60 tons in 2005, 287 tons in 2006, 1156 tons in 2007, and 4,000 tons in 2008. In the first half of 2009 alone, nearly 50 companies in more than 20 provinces including Sichuan, Henan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are building, expanding and preparing polysilicon production lines with a total construction scale of over 100,000 tons.
Shi Zhengrong, one of the “leading†of the domestic PV industry and chairman of Wuxi Suntech Power Co., said in a forum that only a few years later, China’s photovoltaic production capacity expanded drastically. In 2007 and 2008, the industry’s production capacity and output ranked World number one. He believes that "photovoltaic foam" has emerged. As the raw materials of polysilicon are all imported, China's photovoltaic industry has "great leap forward", which has made the price of raw materials from 50 US dollars per kilogram to 500 US dollars in the three years from 2006 to 2008.
To a certain extent, the financial crisis has blown away a lot of bubbles. During the tightening period of the “post-crisis eraâ€, there were once pessimistic estimates in the industry that at least 50% of small and medium-sized PV companies were facing production suspension. The price of raw materials in the international market also fell from the highest of $500/kg to $50/kg.
However, the industry's cooling seems to be only temporary. Since the beginning of this year, with the strong demand in the international market, polysilicon prices have begun to show signs of rebound. The news from photovoltaic companies such as Wuxi Suntech, Tianwei Baobian and Tuo Xinxin Energy is also very optimistic. These companies, which have been worried about the decline in performance and losses since last year, are currently at full production, and some orders have already been placed next year.
A senior energy analyst at Industrial Securities believes that China is already the "most economical" manufacturing base for polysilicon solar energy in the world. In 2009, global solar cell production was around 10G watts, while China accounted for 40%. At the same time, as China's PV production is mainly based on exports, this round of industry recovery called “Second Spring†relies mainly on the recovery of international market demand.
It is reported that Germany, as the world's largest photovoltaic market, the government's development prospects are still widely optimistic even if the government is preparing to cut subsidies. The United States is the largest potential market. In July, US President Barack Obama said he would spend $1.85 billion to support two solar companies. In the “post-crisis eraâ€, Japan has always regarded the activation of the solar market as an important means of stimulating the economy, including solar giants such as Japan’s Sharp and Sanyo, all of which publicly pointed out the proportion of external orders for photovoltaic cells in 2010.
The heat of industry expansion is not diminished, and the domestic "bubble" criticism is also endless. Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, believes that renewable energy, including photovoltaic solar energy, is positioned as a strategic emerging industry, but it is far from universal. According to the long-term plan, renewable energy will play an "important substitution" role in 2030, and will become "an important part of the main energy source" in 2050. At present, the more realistic views in the industry are that the cost of renewable energy is high, the price of electricity is high, and there is still much room for improvement in technology.
In addition, the central government's policy of supporting new energy development will be constrained by financial resources. In addition to the “Golden Sun Plan†subsidized subsidies for demonstration projects, the state currently draws 4 cents per kilowatt-hour of electricity to subsidize renewable energy. According to the scale, in 2009, the country can spend more than 10 billion yuan to subsidize renewable energy generation, which is far less than the development speed of renewable energy.
Meng Xianyu emphasized that the total amount of renewable energy exceeded the target, and the government could not acquire it. The development of new energy must match the national conditions. From the current practice, "local governments are obviously a little radical." In some places, the "three Gorges of the wind power" and "China Sun City", etc., the new energy projects on the fast-moving, are likely to be separated from the market's capacity.
Core technology is about life and death
As early as the bubble swelled, Shi Zhengrong, chairman of Suntech Power Co., criticized that it usually takes two years or longer for PV companies to build factories, with funds ranging from 100 million to 300 million dollars. Under the temptation of profiteering, some investors And the entrepreneurs shortened the construction period to six months, resulting in environmental problems and quality problems.
He believes that for an emerging industry, "excess" is only a phased surplus, not a permanent surplus. The overcapacity of polysilicon pointed out by the State Council is actually "low-end overcapacity, inefficient overcapacity and inferior overcapacity."
“From photovoltaic myth to photovoltaic foam may be just a step away.†Shi Zhengrong said that if this myth continues, it must rely on continuous innovation in technology, business models and international competitiveness. If you still only focus on manufacturing and do not pay attention to scientific research, resulting in "technical short legs", only pay attention to short-term interests and not pay attention to long-term benefits, it is "killing chickens and taking eggs."
Some industry analysts believe that the "temperature difference" between the central and local governments in the development of new energy, that is, the local enthusiasm is significantly higher than the central policy, mainly because of the "only GDP theory". In the core technology of new energy, it is often the local governments that are unwilling to invest. They think that they are investing in their own interests and think that they are investing heavily, and they are slower in their efforts. They are more interested in short, flat and fast projects, so as long as the infrastructure is built up. The introduction of technology, or direct import, assembly, assembly, the industry has become bigger, the digital indicators of the local economy are better, but the long-term benefits and profits are not necessarily much.
It is understood that the core technology of polysilicon production - trichlorosilane reduction method is monopolized by a few companies in the United States, Germany, Japan and other countries, it is difficult for Chinese companies to obtain key technologies. The polysilicon material production process is high-end in the industrial chain, accounting for 50% of the cost. If you do not master the core technology and technology, it will not only cause pollution, but also directly affect product quality.
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