2012 opening of the national hot market copper market

(1) Foshan and Qingyuan Markets in South China: Outside the previous two days of this week, the external market was closed due to Christmas Day. Under the guidance of external disks, Shanghai Copper's trend was weak and there was no active sign in the spot market. Many copper manufacturers gradually entered a state of suspension and recycling. Businesses also dare not expand their inventory. Subsequently, under the stimulation of Italian government bond issuance, worries caused the price of copper to fall. Recyclers who had hoped that copper prices rose on New Year's Day were also hit hard, operations were more cautious, and more cash was required for trading at the end of the year, which restricted the enthusiasm of buyers. . However, on the last trading day, copper prices rose again with positive US housing and employment statistics. However, the confidence of copper market buyers was obviously suppressed. The chase was negative and there was little increase in scrap copper. At present, the wire and cable companies have basically stopped work, the demand for copper rods has dropped sharply, and the orders for copper rod plants have been very poor, and they have also been suspended. In response to the chain reaction, the demand for scrap copper has also been greatly reduced.

(2) East and West China's Shanghai and Taizhou Markets: The price of scrap copper this week was ups and downs. The price of scrap copper held steady on the first trading day this week. Near the end of the year, due to the large number of workers returning to their hometowns, and the lack of operating rates, the general movements of buyers are not large. Although the copper factories with insufficient stocks have plans to make up the stocks, they are worried that the price of copper will go down and the number of purchases will be limited. As the copper market was closed during the holidays, the trend of Shanghai copper lacked the guidance of copper and the copper fell slightly. The holders of the stocks were more serious due to losses, and the asking price was more insistent. However, buyers were relatively weak in buying, and the manufacturers were already near the end of the year. As a result of the continuous suspension of work, the purchase volume was relatively low, and small recyclers were also wary of buying goods because of concerns about price declines. Prices of scrap copper did not fluctuate greatly on Wednesday, but near the end of the year, there were not many active businesses in the market. Some copper mills also slowly entered the queue of shutdowns. The price is not high and the purchasing will is sluggish, and the attitude of reluctant sellers is still strong. There is less supply on the market. The collapse of scrap copper on Thursday caused the confidence of the holders to suffer setbacks. Due to the serious losses, they were generally unable to sell their goods. Buyers are also worried that prices will continue to decline, and the general movement will not be significant. The shortage of individual stocks of copper manufacturers, there is a phenomenon of depressing the purchase price of complementary database, the volume is very small. On the last trading day of this week, scrap copper followed the rising trend of copper. The fall in scrap copper prices has brought back psychological support to the holders of the commodities. Some of the holders of the commodities have sold at high prices and have shipped. However, there are not many buyers who have rushed to follow up. On the whole, copper prices have been repeated this week, and the situation of stop-and-go has caused businesses to be at a loss, and there are not many sources on the market. Near the end of the year, the wait-and-see mood of businesses is dominant.

(3) Tianjin and Hebei markets in North China: This week, the price of copper showed a situation of first suppressing and then increasing. At the beginning of the week, scrap copper prices were stable compared to last Friday. Holders of goods had taken goods and profit-taking had taken place. As the price of scrap copper fell, they suppressed the buying momentum in the spot market. Optimistic, the pessimistic attitude of the carrier is permeated. As they take goods at high prices, they are now seriously losing money. Therefore, they are generally reluctant to sell. However, with the slight increase of scrap copper on the last trading day, individual holders have The phenomenon of shipments, but there are not many sources on the market, although there are a few speculators in the market for a small amount of preparation for the New Year's Day, but often have to reduce the purchase price, and at this time the holders are also called high prices, speculators are quite cautious in purchases According to individual recyclers, at the end of the year, where scrap copper prices have risen less than where they went, they have fallen less than where they are, and there are stocks on the market that do not have goods to wait and see. Both buyers and sellers are not active. The market is relatively deserted. As for the market conditions of scrap copper dismantling plants, due to the arrival of January, when the number of workers returning home for the Chinese New Year was relatively large, the progress was recently stepped up to meet the post-holiday needs. And the market is not stable , Scrap copper dismantling manufacturers in the procurement of copper and aluminum water tanks are extremely cautious, recently there is no difference due to ordering, and news that New Year's Day after the import tariff may have adjusted, so businesses are not in a hurry to order, mostly waiting for tariff reduction news, Do it again. Recently, many copper manufacturers have entered a state of suspension, the number of orders received from copper rod plants has dropped sharply, and the operating rate has also dropped sharply. The capital chain is also in a tense phase. They generally expect that the outlook will not be optimistic and the purchase will not be high.

Summary and forecast:

Lun Copper: This week, Lun Copper suffered a setback due to the renewed worries of the European debt crisis. The new US dollar index also increased the downward pressure on copper prices. The US macro data continued to provide some support for copper prices, and the overall situation showed a box shock. situation. We expect that copper prices will continue to be restrained by European debt worries in the next week due to the start of the new year. Trading time is expected to be 7350-7650 USD.

Shanghai copper: The Shanghai copper exhibited a V-shaped pattern this week, and the copper price on Friday repaired most of the decline in the previous period. However, we expect that the upward space for copper prices will not be able to increase significantly in the future, unless the market expects to reduce the deposit reserve ratio again. Shanghai copper 1203 contract next week fluctuations expected to be 5.45-5.65 million.

Spot and operating recommendations: Close to the holiday, this week the spot market transactions have become increasingly light, copper fell sharply Spot copper is still showing a discounted state, reflecting the attitude of merchants shipping is very clear, while the downstream buyers cautiously still, transactions are mostly rigid demand. The possibility of violent volatility in the copper market has increased due to the rating agencies' announcement of the results of the euro zone and related countries in January. It is proposed that buyers will continue to maintain fewer stocks next week to prevent the risk of a sharp drop in copper prices. Remaining inventory is still dominated by rallies.

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