Since the start of the exchange reform in China, most scholars who have opposed the appreciation of the renminbi have tried to establish some kind of connection between the "Plaza Agreement" and Japan's "lost decade", hoping to be cited as a guide. The current popular view is that at that time, the United States hoped that through the "square agreement", the US dollar would depreciate against the German mark, the Japanese yen and other currencies, thereby improving the US trade situation and reducing the trade deficit. To this end, the United States can exert pressure on Japan to exert pressure, even at the expense of diplomatic measures such as Japan, the United States and the United States. As a result, the United States has hoped to accelerate the appreciation of the yen. However, the United States hopes that the desire to improve trade through currency devaluation will be lost. Both Germany and Japan maintain a trade surplus with the United States. What the United States did not expect was that China has gradually become a pole in global imbalances and has a huge trade surplus with the United States. How did all this happen? First, the Plaza Agreement defeated Japan. All along, the theoretical circles have argued that the Plaza Agreement did not harm Japan, because Japan’s trade surplus has not decreased since the Plaza Accord, and the author has held this view, but this is not true. Although the Plaza Accord did not cause trauma to the Japanese economy, it caused serious internal injuries. The Plaza Agreement changed the labor costs of Japan and the United States and also changed the industrial competitiveness of the two countries. Prior to the Plaza Accord, although the yen appreciated by more than 30%, labor costs were still lower than in the United States. In 1980, Japan’s weekly wage was $224.0, compared with $261.5 in the United States. After the Plaza Accord, Japan’s labor costs surpassed the United States for the first time in 1986, when Japan’s weekly wages were $362.6, compared with $358.5 in the United States. Since then, Japan's labor costs have been higher than the United States, and continue to widen the distance from the United States, by 2000, Japan's labor costs are 37.7% higher than the United States. The foreign direct investment of Japanese companies developed rapidly after the Plaza Agreement. Second, the Plaza Agreement did not benefit the United States. The United States had expected to improve its trade after the Plaza Accord, but did not do so. If only Japan and the United States are considered, then the decline in Japan’s industrial competitiveness and the outward shift of enterprises will directly increase the relative competitiveness of the United States and improve or even reverse the US trade deficit. But just before and after the Plaza Accord, there were new countries in the global market. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, China began reform and opening up, and invested cheap labor that was almost infinite supply to the global market, breaking the expectations of the United States. Many of the production capacity transferred from Japan and Germany has been transferred to China, and US companies have also transferred some of their production capacity to China. The technology of developed countries is combined with the Chinese labor force. The relative competitiveness of the United States has not been improved, but has been weakened. In the end, the "Plaza Agreement" defeated Japan, but did not bring benefits to the United States. Therefore, with Japan as a reference, it is a good explanation for the US's obsession with the appreciation of the renminbi. Since the exchange reform, the renminbi has maintained a slow appreciation, but the United States is still not satisfied. Washington’s obsession with the appreciation of the renminbi is beyond the imagination of many people. In particular, scholars who have an understanding of the situation in Japan are very puzzled: Since the appreciation cannot promote trade rebalancing, why does the United States want the renminbi to appreciate? On this issue, the United States clearly knows much more than China. With the depreciation of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and the depreciation of the German mark, Americans certainly know that the appreciation of the renminbi does not reduce the trade surplus between the two countries. However, in the case of rising labor costs in China, allowing the renminbi to appreciate can accelerate the weakening of China's industrial competitiveness. It can be said that “the meaning of drunkenness is not in wineâ€. Because the appreciation of the currency will bring about two aspects, one is to change the dominant advantages of the two countries through relative price changes, and the other is to reverse the price competitiveness of the two countries through the relative resource cost price change. From the experience of Japan, the latter is more harmful, and this is neglected in the discussion about the appreciation of the renminbi. So, will the United States succeed this time? Although it is still difficult to make a conclusion, the author believes that the probability of success in the United States is much greater than that of the Plaza Agreement. Because the labor market has been set. In the past three decades, the degree of integration of the global labor market has been greatly improved, and the number of laborers capable of newly injecting into the market has been greatly reduced. Therefore, the effect of the depreciation of the dollar will be more directly transmitted to the real economy of the United States. The financing cost advantage of the United States is significant. Considering the cost of production, it is necessary to consider labor costs and capital costs. The yield on US 10-year bonds has fallen to an all-time low of 2.1%. At the same time, the yield on China's 10-year government bonds is 3.9%. Considering the differences in financing systems, the difference in capital costs between China and the United States. It is much bigger. At the same time, China's industrial competitiveness is still very fragile. Compared with Japan’s industrial competitiveness in the Plaza Agreement, China’s industrial competitiveness is still weak, and its dependence on low-cost labor is still high. Therefore, the impact of RMB appreciation on the industrial competitiveness of China and the United States may be even more obvious. Also, the US labor market is also a “dualistic†structure. There is also a small and inexpensive labor force in the US labor market, which is legal and illegal immigration. If the policy is right, the gap between labor costs in China and the United States will be greatly reduced. Although in the short term, it may not be a big problem for labor-intensive industries, capital-intensive industries may be affected first, if China's labor costs rise above the level of robots (not American labor), capital-intensive. The transfer of industry will start. At the same time, due to the high financing costs of SMEs, it is also likely to become the main force to transfer production capacity overseas. To this end, the author has three proposals: attach great importance to analyzing the impact of RMB appreciation on industrial competitiveness, pay close attention to US industrial policies and labor policies, and carefully track the trend of domestic capital-intensive industries and SMEs' overseas investment.
Clear & Ultra Clear Tempered Glass, color tinted Tempered Glass , tempered Back Painted Glass, silk &Digital Printed Glass mostly be used for furniture, table top, barn door, canibet door, shelf, whiteboard, cutting board, usually in relatively small size, but different design, shape, thickness, color, make to order; Adding glass to the top of your furniture provides protection from daily use. A glass top will keep the original look of your furniture and reflects the natural light to enhance the beauty of your original look of your furniture and reflects the natural light to enhance the beauty of your furnishings. Glass tops are sanitary and easy to clean. There is no better way to protect your furniture from wear and elements like a glass top and so on. Dining tables, patio furniture, desk tops and more – is both stylish and functional. The glass furniture is totally environment-oriented. The glass furniture is best option for those people who faces the allergic diseases. Transparency Of The Glass: The glass furniture will make your room look more easy and light. The glass furniture is almost invisible as we compare it to wood furniture such as wood drawer & massive tables.
Table Top Glass,Shower Room Glass,Cabinet Door Glass,Splashabck Glass,Shelf Glass
Shanghai Lead Glass Co.,Ltd , https://www.leadglaze.com