Winter is the day when coal demand is the most prosperous and the market is the best. This winter, the price of coal is getting earlier and faster than before. Correspondingly, more and more thermal power companies are in distress due to the impact of coal prices.
The coal market entered the "good period" ahead of schedule
In previous years, September and October were the traditional off-season for coal. The arrival of November or even the cold winter of December was the beginning of the coal market. This year since the beginning of October, the coal market has entered the best period of hot sales.
The latest data released by the Qinhuangdao Coal Trading Market show that in the one-month period (September 27-October 27), thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal rose from 720 yuan per ton to 760 yuan. The current price has risen by 130 yuan per ton compared with the same period of last year, an increase of more than 20%.
The rapid rise in coal prices directly affects residents' heating expenditures. In the north, urban areas are generally heated by thermal power plants, starting from mid-November and ending in mid-March of the following year. If the cost of coal rises too quickly, thermal power plants will often increase heating costs partly to transfer cost pressures.
In addition, some rural residents in the north are still burning coal and heating in winter. They buy coal through intermediaries, and after the wholesalers change hands, the retail market price is much more expensive than the port coal price.
It is understood that the average winter household heating coal in Shandong is between 1.5 tons and 2 tons. This year, the retail price of Yangquan coal blocks with better quality has reached around 1,500 yuan per ton, compared with only 1,200 yuan last year. This means that each local household heating coal this winter may need to spend 450-600 yuan more.
"Funded" funds poured into the coal market?
According to Zhang Ran, a coal purchaser of Qinhuangdao, a state-owned power plant in Ningbo, the enthusiasm of coal users to “pull coal†in Qinhuangdao began to increase in mid-October due to the dual factors of the power plant's addition of inventory and winter coal storage ahead of schedule. Qinhuangdao Port continued this year. After May, there was a renewed explosion of ship-intensive arrivals, coal prices and sea freight rates.
Liang Dunshi, deputy secretary-general of the China Coal Marketing and Marketing Association, told the reporter that winter is often the season when the coal market is the best and the demand is most prosperous, and there is certain rationality in the trend of rising prices. However, it is undeniable that the market's expectation of “extremely cold weather†this winter and the impulsive mood of small and medium-sized users to “rob the coal ahead of schedule†have also contributed to the excessive increase of coal prices this winter.
Li Ting, an expert at the Qinhuangdao Coal Market Network, frankly stated that apart from the expected impact of seasonal coal consumption peaks and “extremely cold weatherâ€, abundant liquidity and speculative hype in the current market are also contributing to coal prices to a large extent. .
"Under the speculation of funds, coal prices may still have room for growth in the fourth quarter, but the bubble will also increase." A Shanghai ** industry source told reporters that both the stock market and the spot market, "fried coal The wind calendar year has been, and the situation is even worse this year. Constrained by the state's control over real estate, a considerable amount of “speculative property†funds have flooded into the coal market since the second half of this year.
Thermal power plants have become unbearable. For coal-fired power plants, coal prices are always a heavy topic. Any power company does not want electric coal to continue to increase prices. However, coal companies that are in a strong position will not easily "submit" to the wishes of electric power companies.
"Currently, fuel costs are the bulk of thermal power expenditures and account for more than 70% of the cost of power generation." Wang Wei, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities' power industry, said that since the beginning of this year, China's coal prices have been operating at a high level, which is generally higher than last year per ton. More than 100 yuan. If the price of coal in the upper reaches continues to rise, and the downstream on-grid tariffs remain unmoved, the two-way squeeze will make the power generation enterprises even more vulnerable.
A person in charge of a state-owned power plant in Nantong told the reporter that the larger coal-fired power plants in East China have a higher proportion of “contract coalâ€, and the impact of rising coal prices on the spot market is less, and they can maintain a certain profit. However, some small-scale thermal power plants and thermal power plants that rely mainly on market coal have been hit hard by the rising coal prices.
According to a report released by the China Electricity Council on October 29, as of the end of August, the net profit of thermal power companies in China dropped by nearly 20% year-on-year, and all six provinces in central China and Shandong Province continued to suffer a total loss of thermal power, and all three provinces in the northeastern provinces had all lost their thermal power.
As a result of continuous losses, solvency is weakened and financing becomes more difficult. Many power generation companies face the risk of capital chain fracture. The CEC said that at the moment when the northern heating period is approaching and the power plant is storing coal in the winter, once the power plant is forced to stop production due to lack of money to buy coal, there may be a shortage of electricity and heat supply.
Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economics Research Center at Xiamen University, called for the need to accelerate the reform of the electricity price mechanism and advance coal-electricity linkages so as to fundamentally solve the dilemma of conflict between "market coal" and "planned electricity."
Experts also suggested that for some low-income groups, local government departments should give certain "heating subsidies" to weaken the impact of "high coal prices" on the normal life of the people.
The coal market entered the "good period" ahead of schedule
In previous years, September and October were the traditional off-season for coal. The arrival of November or even the cold winter of December was the beginning of the coal market. This year since the beginning of October, the coal market has entered the best period of hot sales.
The latest data released by the Qinhuangdao Coal Trading Market show that in the one-month period (September 27-October 27), thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal rose from 720 yuan per ton to 760 yuan. The current price has risen by 130 yuan per ton compared with the same period of last year, an increase of more than 20%.
The rapid rise in coal prices directly affects residents' heating expenditures. In the north, urban areas are generally heated by thermal power plants, starting from mid-November and ending in mid-March of the following year. If the cost of coal rises too quickly, thermal power plants will often increase heating costs partly to transfer cost pressures.
In addition, some rural residents in the north are still burning coal and heating in winter. They buy coal through intermediaries, and after the wholesalers change hands, the retail market price is much more expensive than the port coal price.
It is understood that the average winter household heating coal in Shandong is between 1.5 tons and 2 tons. This year, the retail price of Yangquan coal blocks with better quality has reached around 1,500 yuan per ton, compared with only 1,200 yuan last year. This means that each local household heating coal this winter may need to spend 450-600 yuan more.
"Funded" funds poured into the coal market?
According to Zhang Ran, a coal purchaser of Qinhuangdao, a state-owned power plant in Ningbo, the enthusiasm of coal users to “pull coal†in Qinhuangdao began to increase in mid-October due to the dual factors of the power plant's addition of inventory and winter coal storage ahead of schedule. Qinhuangdao Port continued this year. After May, there was a renewed explosion of ship-intensive arrivals, coal prices and sea freight rates.
Liang Dunshi, deputy secretary-general of the China Coal Marketing and Marketing Association, told the reporter that winter is often the season when the coal market is the best and the demand is most prosperous, and there is certain rationality in the trend of rising prices. However, it is undeniable that the market's expectation of “extremely cold weather†this winter and the impulsive mood of small and medium-sized users to “rob the coal ahead of schedule†have also contributed to the excessive increase of coal prices this winter.
Li Ting, an expert at the Qinhuangdao Coal Market Network, frankly stated that apart from the expected impact of seasonal coal consumption peaks and “extremely cold weatherâ€, abundant liquidity and speculative hype in the current market are also contributing to coal prices to a large extent. .
"Under the speculation of funds, coal prices may still have room for growth in the fourth quarter, but the bubble will also increase." A Shanghai ** industry source told reporters that both the stock market and the spot market, "fried coal The wind calendar year has been, and the situation is even worse this year. Constrained by the state's control over real estate, a considerable amount of “speculative property†funds have flooded into the coal market since the second half of this year.
Thermal power plants have become unbearable. For coal-fired power plants, coal prices are always a heavy topic. Any power company does not want electric coal to continue to increase prices. However, coal companies that are in a strong position will not easily "submit" to the wishes of electric power companies.
"Currently, fuel costs are the bulk of thermal power expenditures and account for more than 70% of the cost of power generation." Wang Wei, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities' power industry, said that since the beginning of this year, China's coal prices have been operating at a high level, which is generally higher than last year per ton. More than 100 yuan. If the price of coal in the upper reaches continues to rise, and the downstream on-grid tariffs remain unmoved, the two-way squeeze will make the power generation enterprises even more vulnerable.
A person in charge of a state-owned power plant in Nantong told the reporter that the larger coal-fired power plants in East China have a higher proportion of “contract coalâ€, and the impact of rising coal prices on the spot market is less, and they can maintain a certain profit. However, some small-scale thermal power plants and thermal power plants that rely mainly on market coal have been hit hard by the rising coal prices.
According to a report released by the China Electricity Council on October 29, as of the end of August, the net profit of thermal power companies in China dropped by nearly 20% year-on-year, and all six provinces in central China and Shandong Province continued to suffer a total loss of thermal power, and all three provinces in the northeastern provinces had all lost their thermal power.
As a result of continuous losses, solvency is weakened and financing becomes more difficult. Many power generation companies face the risk of capital chain fracture. The CEC said that at the moment when the northern heating period is approaching and the power plant is storing coal in the winter, once the power plant is forced to stop production due to lack of money to buy coal, there may be a shortage of electricity and heat supply.
Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economics Research Center at Xiamen University, called for the need to accelerate the reform of the electricity price mechanism and advance coal-electricity linkages so as to fundamentally solve the dilemma of conflict between "market coal" and "planned electricity."
Experts also suggested that for some low-income groups, local government departments should give certain "heating subsidies" to weaken the impact of "high coal prices" on the normal life of the people.
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