However, the Chinese economy still faces the challenge of external uncertainty, and there are many difficulties that need to be solved. The foundation for economic recovery needs to continue to be consolidated.
At the beginning of the press conference of the new state office on October 22, Li Xiaochao, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, confidently raised a question: "In response to the impact of the international financial crisis, the central government implemented a package of timely and decisive measures in the fourth quarter of last year. A grain of seed will be sown, and I hope that there will be a good harvest in the coming year. Over the past year, we have experienced the germination of seeds, the spring of blooming, and the growing summer. In the fall of the year, this harvest What did we gain in the season?"
There is no doubt that we have gained a good recovery in the national economy. As all parties conscientiously implemented the package plan of the Party Central Committee and the State Council to cope with the international financial crisis and promote steady and rapid economic development, the GDP growth rate in the first three quarters reached 7.7%, and the results and process of economic stabilization and recovery were better than the hunch. Stabilization and recovery have been consolidated.
What is the trend of the Chinese economy in 2009 is a problem that has been analyzed and debated by all walks of life this year. Economists often use the letters "U, V, W, L" to express their judgments. It seems that many scholars believe that China may slowly pick up after a trough and get out of a "U" shape. The fact is that from the first quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009, GDP growth in the seven quarters reached 10.6%, 10.1%, 9%, 6.8%, 6.1%, 7.9%, and 8.9%, respectively. Put together, we can clearly see that the Chinese economy has come out of a beautiful "V" type of reversal.
From the most important industrial value-added indicators, since November last year, it has experienced a four-month low-speed growth. This year, the growth has accelerated quarter by quarter, and the “V†type has also rebounded: the first quarter increased by 5.1%, and the second quarter increased. 9.1%, an increase of 12.4% in the third quarter. The growth rate in the third quarter has returned to the level of September last year. While the growth is accelerating, the efficiency indicators are also improving. According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Finance, from January to September, the year-on-year decline in operating income and realized profits of state-owned and state-owned holding companies further narrowed.
With the stabilization of the economy, market confidence has further strengthened, and the business climate index, entrepreneur confidence index, and manufacturing purchasing managers' index have all steadily increased. In particular, the National Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index has reached 54.3% in September, surpassing 50% for seven consecutive months, standing above the critical point of the boom. Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, judged: "The worst period of China's economy has passed, and the situation of stabilization and recovery has been consolidated." Investment and consumption of domestic demand "horse carriage" performance is eye-catching.
Under the impact of the international financial crisis, China’s export situation this year is very serious. In the first three quarters, imports and exports fell by 20.9% year-on-year. Among them, the first quarter fell by 24.9%, the second quarter fell by 22.1%, and the third quarter fell by 16.5%. Although the decline gradually narrowed, the decline could not be reversed.
The "Troika" has insufficient external demand, but the investment and consumption of the two domestic demand "horse carriage" performance is eye-catching, which played a key role in the stabilization and recovery of the economy this year. According to preliminary estimates by the National Bureau of Statistics, final consumption in the first three quarters contributed 4 percentage points to GDP, and investment contributed 7.3 percentage points. This year's investment has maintained a growth rate of more than 30% for two consecutive quarters, which has contributed to economic growth. Li Xiaochao said: "We must also see that consumption has also maintained rapid growth and is an important factor driving economic growth. In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 15.1%. After deducting the price factor, the actual growth rate was 17%. It should be said that Maintain a faster growth rate."
In addition, the structure of investment continues to improve, with a focus on some of the weak links in economic development and areas related to people's livelihood. The first is to invest in rural areas. In the first three quarters, fixed asset investment in rural areas increased by 33.6% year-on-year. The second is to invest in the central and western regions. In the first three quarters, investment in the eastern region increased by 28.1%, the central region increased by 38.3%, and the western region increased by 38.9%. Investment growth in the central and western regions was higher than the national average. The third is to be placed in the primary and tertiary industries. In the first three quarters, the investment in the primary industry increased by 54.8%, the investment in the secondary industry increased by 26.9%, and the investment in the tertiary industry increased by 38.1%. Fourth, infrastructure investment has been greatly strengthened. In the first three quarters, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 52.6%, of which railway transportation industry increased by 87.5%, road transportation industry increased by 50.7%, and health, social security and social welfare industry increased by 72.9%. "The strengthening of investment in these areas is actually laying a good foundation for the next phase of faster economic growth." Li Xiaochao said.
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