Recently, the Shanghai aluminum trend has been slightly stronger. Even if the international aluminum price is pushed down by the continued strength of the US dollar to test the US$1,700, it will not be affected. The price will not fall back. The main contract in August was even higher at a price of 16,950 yuan per ton. So, Shanghai aluminum prices can attack trading area? First, the firmness of domestic spot prices led by inventory changes is the focus of the market. Prior to the final decision on the export tariff increase of aluminum ingots, the assault export behavior of aluminum plants continued. According to newly released data from China Customs, aluminum exports in May were 147,491 tons, and aluminum exports from January to May increased from 30.6% to 642,179 tons. In the April-June period of metal consumption, strong domestic consumption coupled with a large number of exports kept domestic stocks in a state of reduction. At present, there are only 22,473 tons of domestic aluminum stocks, which is the lowest level since December 2003. The tight supply and demand situation in China has kept the spot price steadily rising. Relative to the strong spot, Shanghai aluminum prices have always maintained a weak premium. In the short term, as long as there is no significant increase in stocks and the spot price remains stable, there is still a possibility that the futures price will rise to a certain extent. Secondly, the country's new industry policy has resulted in the market generating positive expectations that future countries will restrain the development of the aluminum industry. Recently, the government issued a policy to abolish 5% tariffs on exports of aluminum alloys on July 1st, aiming to encourage the development of the remanufactured aluminum industry, which is dominated by the international market but severely hit by the aluminum industry policies implemented at the beginning of the year. Since recycled aluminum is mainly produced from recycled aluminum, this does not seem to mean that the country has relaxed its restraint on the development of the aluminum industry. However, taking into account that China is a net importer of scrap aluminum, the development of the reclaimed aluminum alloy industry still brings potential benefits to the future demand of the primary aluminum market. In addition, according to sources inside the bank, in view of the current domestic aluminum electrolysis business development is almost stagnant, operating difficulties, national policies will be loosened, such as stop processing trade approvals, increase the number of imported alumina companies. Import tariffs for alumina will be lowered next year and the magnitude will be determined. In the future, the price of electrolyzed aluminum enterprises may no longer rise, and the state will allow banks to lend to electrolytic aluminum companies. Some of the above policies have been implemented. If all of them are implemented, the dilemma of domestic electrolytic aluminum companies will undoubtedly be improved. Later, the direct reason for attracting some funds into the market to do more should be attributed to the recent strong rise in copper prices. With the help of LME inventories, the fund has broken the historical lows and the positive effect of the rapid rise in spot premiums has contributed to a significant increase in international copper prices. Although domestic imports of copper are relatively recent, and supply is relatively abundant, Shanghai Copper’s main August contract is still driven by Len Copper’s record high. At this stage, the price of Shanghai Aluminum increased by less than 400 points, and there is certain room for profit taking into the aluminum market based on the linkage of metal prices. Whether it is the fundamentals, the national policy or the market atmosphere, there is a momentum for Shanghai Aluminum prices to rise. In particular, the recent increase in the price of aluminum due to the weaker dollar followed the resumption of copper prices, and also provided guidance for Shanghai Aluminum. However, given the favorable situation, we cannot ignore the existence of negative factors caused by the unique fundamentals of the domestic aluminum market. At the front, the prices of Shanghai Aluminum and London Aluminum have recently increased rapidly, which has attracted a lot of cross-market arbitrage funds. Due to the sharp fall in international aluminum prices from June 6th to 13th, and the smaller fall in Shanghai aluminum prices, the Shanghai-Hungarian exchange rate increased and rose to above 9.8 on the 13th. According to the current import and export policies of aluminum ingots, the price ratio is about 8.3-8.5. At present, it is obviously higher than the ratio of 9.33-9.65 when the domestic aluminum price soared before the macro regulation in September 2004. Therefore, the market appears to have bought domestic cross-market arbitrage opportunities in London. From the substantial Masukura behavior of Lon Aluminium at a relatively low price of US$1,700 and the aggressive selling of Shanghai Aluminum in recent days between 16800 and 1900, it has been concluded that there have been arbitrage funds involved in the market. Under the high price parity, on the one hand, the domestic aluminum ingot's enthusiasm has weakened, and on the other hand, it may trigger a large number of imported aluminum ingots. The domestic aluminum price trend in the later period is not optimistic. Second, the drop in the price of imported alumina has weakened the cost effect of aluminum prices. As the country will adjust the alumina import tariffs, domestic aluminum smelters will reduce their purchases and import alumina will fall. In the past month, spot imported alumina prices have fallen by more than 10%. In early June, China's port CIF price has dropped to around US$435, and some even reported US$420. The quoted price of imported alumina port warehouses was roughly 4,750 yuan/ton, and the prices continued to fall. Due to the sharp rise in oil prices and the general power shortage in the country, it is expected that the number of alumina imports in summer will still drop slightly. So, there is still room for further reduction in the price of imported alumina. In summary, Shanghai Aluminum's price still has momentum to rise in the short term, and the main 508 contract will continue to rise to the short-term downward pressure line formed by the connection between 17390 and 16970 in the short term. However, the operation of cross-market arbitrage funds and the fall in alumina prices have made the mid- to long-term trend of prices unfavorable. The bottleneck of this year's market sentiment and the low stock position will still restrict the trend of Shanghai Aluminum in the latter period. It is expected that it will be more difficult for Shanghai Aluminum to break out of the breakthrough market during the off-season period of traditional consumer spending. Excerpt: Futures Daily / Xiao Qiaohua
Moving Head Stage Light,Moving Head Lights,Mini Led Moving Head,Mini Led Spot Moving Head Light
Big Dipper Laser Science And Technology Co., Ltd , https://www.bigdipper-laser.com